The Wake-Up Call

2011 is becoming one of the most intriguing years in college football. 

Ohio State seems hell-bent on collapsing into dust. Michigan State lost to Notre Dame but is still confident that it doesn't mean much for the Spartans' upcoming bout with Michigan. Illinois, despite that its fans previously believing Ron Zook to be one of the most incompetent coaches in the Big Ten, is now looking like a viable contender for their division—with only Wisconsin standing in their way. (In the other conferences, all the usual players are making runs for their titles. The only real surprise has been Baylor.)

However, the most intriguing team of the year has to be the Michigan Wolverines. Last year they had one of the worst defenses of any BCS conference, they lost their games in the worst ways possible, and the athletic department made a coaching change. Usually, that spells trouble for the next couple years: coaching changes almost universally spell losses in the first season, and there's always player attrition. 

Instead, Brady Hoke has had very few players leave and has coached the team to a 6-0 record midway through the first season. There are even whispers that Michigan will be legitimate contenders for the Big Ten championship game (probably against Wisconsin), something which I didn't expect until Hoke's second year. All I wanted out of Hoke's first year was an 8-4 record and to snap the losing streaks over the rivals. Now it looks like Hoke could take this team all the way.

But in a lot of ways, the game against Northwestern was a wake-up call. Michigan stumbled terribly through the first half, where Denard Robinson threw three interceptions. One can always be expected in any given game and is forgivable, two is rough-going and usually means a bad decision was made, but three—that's means the quarterback is having a bad game. 

As Pat Fitzgerad's Wildcats finished the half up 24-14, Michigan fans thought they were watching a repeat of 2010. Last year Michigan started 5-0 but couldn't finish the second half of the season, ending at 7-5 and a blowout bowl loss. Last Saturday, what Michigan fans were seeing wasn't necessarily a repeat of Rich Rodriguez's final year, it was more a repeat of the night game against Notre Dame.

Michigan's offense in the first half was bad then too. It couldn't get anything going. The defense was stout but couldn't fully stop an explosive attack. Then something changed in that second half, and against the Fighting Irish, it ultimately came in the fourth quarter. 

Against the Wildcats, Michigan looked like a completely different team after halftime. The most surprising and satisfying statement: Michigan's defense shut out Northwestern in the final two quarters. The Wildcats didn't score a single point. Michigan capitalized on penalties and turnovers, which went both ways.

There was one call that Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald was absolutely livid about. In Michigan's second half rally, Jordan Kovacs came from the secondary to put pressure on Wildcat quarterback Dan Persa. Persa's helmet came off and Fitzgerald claimed that Kovacs had ripped it off, but there was no flag on the field. After seeing the video replay, I had to agree with Fitzgerald, although if the officials can't see it on the field, they won't throw a flag. Northwestern, and Fitzgerald especially, will be bitter about that one for a long time. However, it wasn't by any means the deciding factor in the game. Besides, the game's officials had helped out the Wildcats throughout the entire first half. Most notably, they got away with a blatant roughing the passer, where Denard Robinson took an unnecessary shot, and it wasn't called. So, I guess it all evened out.

The final score was Michigan 42, Northwestern 24. The Wildcats are now 2-3.

Despite typically being considered the Big Ten's doormat, Northwestern has improved greatly under Pat Fitzgerald. His record is 36-32. At the age of 36, he was the youngest head coach in college football before Lane Kiffin. Fitzgerald had a great 9-4 season in 2008 and has built the program into a viable contender. His quarterback, Dan Persa, is considered by some to be the best passer in the Big Ten and a possible Heisman candidate, but Persa's main deterrent in both has been his susceptibility to injury. Fitzgerald has done a good job to bring the spread offense to the Big Ten, and some Michigan fans even wanted him to be a candidate for the Michigan job. That wasn't ever going to happen, though. Northwestern is Fitzgerald's alma mater, and he's going to stay there forever or as long as he can.

What Michigan learned from its game against Northwestern is that they can go up against a tough team, and this season is going to be tough. With the way this season has started out, it's almost like climbing a ladder. The Notre Dame game was obviously challenging, and it was a good indicator of how things would look in the Big Ten. 

Brady Hoke has had tests that gradually got harder. His first Big Ten game was against a struggling Minnesota, but that can be likened to a season opener. That's probably why Northwestern reminds me so much of the Notre Dame game—although, of course, it wasn't nearly as close. Michigan State, despite their offensive line troubles, will make the game fierce and difficult, but the good news is that this is not last year's Michigan. This is a Michigan that is competitive.

That's what we learned. The first half in Evanston showed us that Michigan, ultimately, is not a top ten team. Not yet, anyway. They are, however, competitive in the Big Ten, and that makes all the difference. A competitive Michigan is able to rally from behind instead of being blown out. It's able to react and make adjustments. Most importantly, it's able to find a way to win.

Last year's wake-up call was in game six against Michigan State. The Spartans showed Michigan fans exactly how bad the Wolverines' defense was. This year's wake-up call is different. Michigan is not perfect, but it's improved. You are not watching 2010 because the Wolverines can finally make a stop. You are not watching 2010 because Michigan finally has an established running game (or at least several different runners) other than Denard Robinson. You are not watching 2010 because we are holding teams scoreless while we put up points and make necessary third-down conversions. This is a team that is focused on controlling the ball, time of possession, and that ultimately is why the teams we have faced have not been able to get back into the game. What is perhaps most refreshing is that, for the first time in a long time, this team is duly confident. It is at the same time cautious of its dangerous opponents. That's how a good football team acts.

Understandably, Michigan fans are finding reasons for optimism, but let's not go crazy. The Wolverines went from being a team that was bad defensively and mediocre offensively to a team that is good in both. But they aren't great. They aren't mentioned among the BCS title contenders such as LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, nor should they be. It's hard to keep things in perspective when you're having so much success. 

Michigan's game against Northwestern was hardly a flawless victory, and this is hardly a flawless team. But where there is legitimate reason for optimism is in this team's apparent ability to do everything they can to overcome their flaws, and that's to be commended.

They still have a lot of work to do. There are going to be a lot of tough battles ahead, but I have a feeling that's exactly how Brady Hoke wants it. The best things in life are rarely easy to attain.

Five Teams that Michigan Should Not Underestimate

It's only a few weeks away now from the start of the 2011 season, so needless to say the anticipation is building. While what follows isn't exactly season predictions, and some of you are expecting those at this point, here's a little preview at some of Michigan's upcoming opponents.

These are teams that Michigan is generally expected to beat in just about everyone's predictions, but who we think will give the Wolverines more of a fight than they expect. Sure, Michigan will probably expect tough games against Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and even Notre Dame—depending on who you ask—and there are somewhat "easy" teams like Eastern Michigan that shouldn't give the Wolverines much of a problem.

However, here are five teams that sort of fall right in the middle. Michigan possibly could come into these battles overconfident, and that's what we're hoping to prevent. These guys could surprise Michigan with a loss.

1. Michigan State

Despite the resurgence of Michigan in the battle for in-state recruiting, followed by much of the Spartan faithful going into panic mode, Michigan State still has a legitimate shot at the Legends Division and maybe even the Big Ten title. I think one of the biggest mistakes Michigan has made over the past three years, certainly in 2009 and 2010, was to enter the Michigan State game underestimating the Spartans. Some suggest that had more to do with the direction under Rich Rodriguez, but the fact remains that the Spartans appeared far more motivated in those contests. Furthermore, I said previously that Michigan State has consistently played its best game of the season against Michigan.

Part of me thinks that Michigan State's journey to an 11-1 regular season in 2010 was due mostly to an easy schedule and the rest came from a fair amount of luck. Had the Spartans been challenged by Ohio State, they could have lost their share of the Big Ten title, something which they desperately cling to today. Yet Michigan State had a convincing win against Wisconsin, who must have had an off day because they were clearly the better team in every other contest. Then Michigan State's luck ran out when they lost in a 49-7 shellacking by Alabama. The defeat put such a sour taste in the mouths of MSU fans that it made some of them wonder if the Spartans weren't as good as they all had thought.

2011 could go either way for them. Some are predicting a continuation of what had happened in 2010, and MSU could be in line for another 11-win season. Others say that Michigan State has peaked and will return to the middle of the Big Ten pack. That might be true in the coming years, but for 2011, the Spartans return most of their weapons of offense. Kirk Cousins is one of the best passers in the Big Ten. Michigan State also has Edwin Baker at running back and B.J. Cunningham at wide receiver, and both are threatening at how much they can make big plays. Their kicking game is excellent. On defense, the Spartans lose middle linebacker Greg Jones, who some refer to as "the heart and soul" of that unit. Jones certainly made a difference in any games he played for the Spartans, and he won't be easy to replace. There are plenty of good players in the secondary, but the unit won't be the same. Expect the Spartans to give Michigan a really good showing and play their hearts out.

Any Michigan fan knows that Michigan State's winning for the past three years has been severely unsettling, and most are predicting a victory for the Wolverines, but just because Brady Hoke is the new coach, don't expect this win to be a lock. The Spartans fight tooth and nail over this game, and they have plenty of talented players. The Wolverines should not underestimate them.

2. Western Michigan

It's Brady Hoke's first game as Michigan head coach. You'd think that the Wolverines could come into this game rabid and looking for blood because they have something to prove—but that's what I had thought would happen in 2010. Instead, the Wolverines struggled against any teams that were Top 25 in the Big Ten, we lost because of a mysteriously bad defense, and Rodriguez was fired. Hoke is far more passionate about Michigan football than Rodriguez ever was (or possibly ever could be), and so by that definition the Michigan team he will field this year will be a winner.

But even Lloyd Carr lost games he shouldn't have (see: Appalachian State). Michigan has a tendency to get caught up in the hype because they are so used to success they think it is right around the corner. The problem Michigan has faced for the past three years under Rodriguez was that there essentially two stories: there was the "should" games, and then there was what actually happened. In 2010, Rodriguez should have snapped both winning streaks against Michigan State and Ohio State. He should have won the Big Ten. Denard should have won the Heisman. They should have, but they didn't.

Enter Western Michigan. Brady Hoke should win this game simply because it's his first, it's at home, and it's what people are looking for as an indication that Michigan made the right hire and Hoke is getting the Wolverines back on track. Yes, should. But people said the same thing about Rich Rodriguez.

So, what's the lesson? Take nothing for granted.

The Broncos went 6-6 last year, and according to The Wolverine's 2011 Michigan Football Preview, their returning defensive line "must find a way to get to the quarterback more." WMU quarterback Alex Carder has his favorite targets return as well, but there's also the emergence of "a solid running game." There are little to no indications that the Broncos, despite being a mid-level MAC team, are a push over.

Personally, I hate it when Michigan plays MAC teams. There's so much to lose and so little to win. It rarely provides a good game, so victories don't mean much, but losses are absolutely devastating. But that shouldn't happen. Nevertheless, as much as this is Brady Hoke's first game, and Michigan's season opener, it's still Western's first game of the season too. They'll want to win it as much as anyone, and they'll come in looking to do that. For Michigan not to show up to this game would be a colossal mistake.

3. San Diego State

Let me say this right now: don't be surprised or devastated or confused if San Diego State defeats Michigan. It's Brady Hoke's old team, the one he just built into a winner. It's more or less the same team that came within a heartbeat of defeating TCU. Instead, they tied for third in the Mountain West Conference and surprised everyone by beating Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. Looking back, no one should have been surprised. It's Brady Hoke.

What Michigan fans should see when we play San Diego State is essentially a future version of the Wolverines minus the five-star talent. It's both the product of Al Borges refining quarterback Ryan Lindley and of Brady Hoke's emphasis on toughness on defense. Yes, Brady Hoke is no longer the coach, but Hoke's defensive coordinator Rocky Long took over and leads a team that hasn't lost too many starters. Though Borges preferred to have a strong passing attack, the SDSU Aztecs have a surprisingly good ground game, and running back Ronnie Hillman was in Heisman talks for maybe a minute because he broke tons of conference records. Hillman was also named a Freshman All-American. So, look out for San Diego State's running game.

Michigan's game against the Aztecs will likely be very awkward and uncomfortable for both sides, though not surprisingly Hoke expects it to be a fun game. While there were seemingly no hard feelings or ill-will towards Hoke when he left for the Michigan job, the Aztecs would be lying if they said that they wouldn't be satisfied with a win. Frankly, I don't think anyone should be surprised if that happens. Hoke built the Aztecs into a solid, respectable team that knows how to win and can do it.

The biggest mistake Michigan might make (and which predicting fans have already made) is to consider this game already in the bag because Michigan is traditionally a better team. Yes, Michigan is better, and we should beat San Diego State, but the Aztecs have shown that a well-coached team can pretty much do anything. Had Hoke stayed at San Diego State, it's conceivable they'd not only have eventually won the conference but made a bid for bigger bowls, possibly even BCS ones.

Because it's practically the same unit, expect the same on-field production. The defense will still be Rocky Long's, and if San Diego State can keep what Borges installed, they'll be fine. This is definitely one team that Michigan should not overlook. A win (for U-M) would only mean that San Diego State has yet to acquire the same level of top talent that Michigan is accustomed to getting. A loss—again, don't be surprised—would only give more credit to Brady Hoke as a coach. What he did there is astounding.

4. Northwestern

If ever there was a "trap" game for the Wolverines in 2011, this would be it. Although Northwestern is typically called "the doormat of the Big Ten," Ryan Tice at The Wolverine considers quarterback Dan Persa to be the best quarterback in the conference. "If senior quarterback Dan Persa is able to recover fully from a ruptured Achilles' tendon that brought an early close to his magical 2010 campaign, Northwestern could be a contender for the Big Ten Legends' Division," Tice wrote in the 2011 Michigan Football Preview issue.

Persa accounted for 75% of Northwestern's total offense and completed approximately 74% of all his passes. Phil Steele's College Football Preview ranked him as the No. 14 quarterback in the nation, and there's even talk that he might surpass Stanford's Andrew Luck as a Heisman candidate. So, yeah, Northwestern's got something.

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald had a 9-win season with the Wildcats back in 2008 and some thought he should be a candidate for the Michigan job. However, Fitzgerald is going nowhere. He's at Northwestern to stay—probably because they're his alma mater or something—and he's determined to lead them to their first post-season bowl win since the late 1940s. Taking Persa, who was recruited as a two-star quarterback, to Heisman talks is astounding for any coach. Expect Fitzgerald to have a lot of success this year.

It's no wonder some people are considering Northwestern the dark horse winner of the Big Ten this year. (Most think the battle will be between Nebraska and Wisconsin.) The Wildcats have a killer passing game, and in 2010 that was Michigan's biggest weakness to defend. (We also had a big weakness at defending the run, but whatever.) It's plausible that Northwestern, despite going 6-6 in 2010, would have beat Michigan—especially, and perhaps solely, if Persa had been on the field.

Keep that in mind as the Wolverines go to Evanston this year. Hopefully our defense will be improved enough to stop Dan Persa's passing attack, but if all the analysts predicting big things for him are right, it won't be pretty.

5. Minnesota

Weirder things have happened. Like Brady Hoke, Minnesota's new coach Jerry Kill thrives when people tend to underestimate him. While I don't necessarily think that Kill is as good or effective a coach—he has a peculiar coaching style ("YOU SUCK! I do like you, though..."), and he prefers to find athletic quarterbacks who can "make up for my [Kill's] lack of coaching"—and as much as I dislike that philosophy, it would be wrong to say that Kill is bad at what he does. His supporters will tell you that he's won everywhere he's coached, and he'll tell you he won because he brings consistency from a loyal coaching staff. He's blunt and realistic, makes no promises to win right away, but that doesn't mean he's not going to win.

Because the Golden Gophers went 3-9 last year, everyone will be underestimating them. That's a mistake. Iowa knows too well what happens when you think beating Minnesota will be easy—as they painfully learned in 2010. No one was expecting Minnesota to upset Iowa (who defeated Michigan State, a co-champion of the Big Ten), but it just showed that in college football anything can happen.

Minnesota also isn't as inept as everyone believes them to be. If you follow any Minnesota football news or blogs, you'll see a very sober level of expectations but plenty of playmakers who can help the Golden Gophers win more games. Minnesota's quarterback MarQueis Gray is essentially their version of Denard Robinson, and some even consider him an NFL-caliber quarterback. Gray switched to receiver last year, but with the departure of senior quarterback Adam Weber, he's back under center. The offense is surprisingly underrated (losing seasons tend to do that) even though Minnesota has effective skill players with Da'Jon McKnight at wide receiver and Duane Bennett at running back. Both are standout players who could and probably will have a big impact on Minnesota's immediate future.

To say that Jerry Kill is trying to do at Minnesota what Brady Hoke is trying to do at Michigan would only be half true. Despite having won several National Championships half a century ago (something the Gophers love to showcase), the pressure to win immediately is no where near as high. Minnesota is not the national brand that Michigan is, nor does it have the national fanbase. But Minnesota could be on its way back up. I don't see it getting back to the level of BCS National Championships because it is locked in the same division as Michigan, and I think Minnesota will never be good enough to dominate them.

The rivalry was a big deal in years past, and Michigan and Minnesota's players lost sleep over who had the Little Brown Jug—but that was when Minnesota was racking up National Championships. Today, the intensity is kind of gone, but Hoke and Kill's battles could be the first in an era that brings it back.

Kill has a tendency to surprise those who underestimate him and beat them when they don't expect it. He'll do the same thing at Minnesota, because he's done it everywhere else. The Wolverines must be ready.