Borges: Offense "Still a Work in Progress"

If there's one thing that's good about losing a single game, it's that it produces a lot of drama. And drama breeds more writing material.

Recently there's been a lot of criticism levied against Michigan offensive coordinator Al Borges for sticking with a seemingly ineffective game plan regarding Michigan's 41-14 loss to No. 2-ranked Alabama.

This is largely an argument in his defense.

In Borges's Tuesday press conference--which you can watch here--the first question he was asked was whether or not he would go back and change his game plan. Borges's answer:

Very little would I change. Very little. Almost none. That’s probably hard to grasp because of the way we executed. The game plan didn’t look very effective, but the whole thing was geared to if they loaded the box up, we were going to throw the ball, and if they left the box light, we were going to run it. We ran the ball into a light box twelve times and had +4 runs three times out of the twelve. And we hit two out of ten shots down the field. So, the other alternative is to +1 run with the quarterback. We did some of that, too, but they weren’t going to let you do that. As much as you wanted to give that a shot, that wasn’t going to happen. No one’s done that to them. Look at the numbers in the past. No one’s done that to them.

The question is telling. There seems to be this notion that if we only ran Denard twenty or thirty times, we would have won the game or somehow at least have kept it close.

We can see this criticism best summed up by the post-game reaction by Brian Cook at mgoblog:

At no point did Al Borges deploy the EMP weapon he must have spent the offseason perfecting in lieu of figuring out what Denard Robinson is good at.

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At halftime I bellowed "THAT'S BECAUSE YOU'RE NOT RUNNING DENAAAAARD" at the television.
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Any hopes you may be harboring that this will all work itself out and Denard's legs will be the primary engine of the offense are looking pretty sickly at the moment. At least we've been here before, and Borges has retreated to plot anew. Usually he comes back with "hey, this guy can run."
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The only rationale I can think of that makes any sense is that Borges believed flat-out that Michigan could not run at all and wanted an offense predicated on that.
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If Robinson has 30 carries against Air Force I'll again descend into the Walter White [of AMC's Breaking Bad] laugh.

The criticism seems to be based on the precepts that 1) Denard Robinson is the most explosive player in Michigan's offense, 2) Al Borges must run Denard in order to win games, and 3) putting Denard in a spread offense would result in more success. The third one really comes through here:

Would have been nice to see what Robinson could have become in an offense that catered to—or even bothered to use—his primary skill.

I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding to the state of our team by some of our fans. Although it was continually lost on Herbstreit and Musberger during the broadcast, the decision by Al Borges to run Denard infrequently was borne more out of necessity than preference.

Denard may very well run the ball twenty times in other games. It wasn't an option against Alabama, as Borges points out:

We’ll play that game by game, but I would not have run Denard Robinson any more than we ran him on Saturday. Absolutely not. No, I know a lot of people think that, but no way. That wasn’t going to happen. But in certain games you’ll run the ball. I mean, it’s just like last year. You’ll see certain games he’ll carry it 25 times. You’ll see other games he’ll carry it 10 to 15 times. You can run him 20 times every game, you'll get nothing left of him by the end of the season, particularly when you’re playing opponents like [Alabama]. That’s already been proven.
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In the Alabama game they weren’t going to let you run. Look at their numbers, guys. They’ve never allowed a quarterback to run the football. Not with any significance. They play a front, they play a defense that forces the quarterback to throw the ball. You can run here and there, but if you think you’re going out of there for 150 yards, it’s not going to happen all the time. But in other games -- there will be certain games you’ll see him run a lot more.

What needs to be understood is two things. The first is that the last thing you want is to injure your starting quarterback in the first game of the season when you have 11 more games to play. History says that running Denard twenty to thirty times does not necessarily guarantee success (see 2010 Ohio State, Mississippi State, etc.), and more often than not it means that Denard will not finish the game (see 2010 Bowling Green, Illinois).

Even in an offense that seemingly suited Denard’s skills, there was a greater fear that he’d be injured out of the game instead of throwing an incomplete pass. I’d rather have the latter.



The second thing that needs to be understood was obvious to anyone who watched the game—or at least, it should be obvious to anyone who watched the game: Alabama was not going to let Denard run.

They knew coming in that he was Michigan’s most explosive player and they would be watching him at all times. Given Saban’s aggressive defense, the way that Alabama likely intended to stop Denard Robinson was by knocking his lights out.

So, not only is it imprudent to run Denard thirty times when that’s exactly what the opposing defense is looking for, it’s also exhibits a lack of understanding the opponent’s primary strength in defending the run. It’s not like we were playing Connecticut.

Borges knew that going in. Contrary to the narrative ESPN was pushing in an attempt to hype up the game, Denard was not an "X-Factor" for which Saban's defense would have no answer. And Borges is right: if you look at the stats, dual threat quarterbacks had virtually no success running the ball against Alabama.

Here are a few examples: (links to box scores included)

In Alabama's 2011 regular game against Ole Miss, dual-threat quarterback Randall Mackey had 12 carries for 6 yards.
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In Alabama's 2011 regular season game against LSU, dual-threat quarterback Jordan Jefferson had 11 carries for 43 yards.
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In the 2012 BCS national championship game, Jordan Jefferson had 14 carries for 15 yards.

Those are two SEC quarterbacks who each didn't manage 100 yards. History does not support the notion that Denard Robinson would have fared any better against the Crimson Tide.

So what was the alternative?

Michigan blog Touch the Banner summed up Borges's challenge nicely:

Michigan wasn't going to be able to run the ball in this game. I predicted that Michigan would rush for fewer than 100 yards; the final tally was 69, despite having one of the most electrifying players in the country at quarterback. Yes, Denard Robinson probably could have run the ball more, especially before he got dinged up. Would it have made much of a difference? Probably not. Where Robinson really could have made a difference was in the passing game.

Exactly. The passing game. If Alabama had any type of weakness (and that's stretching the term a bit), it would be in their inexperienced secondary. Borges's plan to throw the ball when they stacked the box is exactly what you'd want to do to put pressure on those defensive backs. In fact, that's really the only thing you can do.

Maize n Brew's Anthony Mammel took a sort of critical approach with this:

What in the world was Michigan running the ball on first and second down for? Vincent Smith and Thomas Rawls combined for 19 carries and 42 yards! To any other coordinator this means the running game should only be used just enough to keep a defense honest, especially when Alabama is bringing back side edge blitzes like it's the last game they'll ever play. The opportunity for Robinson to take advantage was clear, yet Borges just had to keep on truckin'. Don't do this against Michigan State again.

And later, in the comments:

He [Borges] was calling running plays that were averaging no more than two yards the entire game while Alabama continued to bring the heat. No excuse for that, especially late in the game when we needed points in a hurry.

This is kind of missing the point. One, Michigan's receivers didn't catch all the deep balls thrown their way, which would have forced Alabama to adjust and likely would have changed the entire landscape of the game. Second, Borges had to take some of the pressure off Denard's passing woes by running the ball (with a zone read) when the box was light (i.e. dropped back into coverage).

On many of those reads, Denard chose not to keep the ball. While some believe that Denard keeping the ball would have meant a greater chance of success, the only difference that I think would have happened would be that we'd be now trading sentiments of "Get well soon, Denard" and talking about the season going forward with Russell Bellomy or Devin Gardner as our quarterback.

Yes, Michigan needed points in a hurry, but they weren't making gains on the ground or in the air. In fact, the only two opportunities Michigan had to score came off two deep balls thrown that were actually caught (one by Jeremy Gallon which put Michigan at the one-yard line, and the other by Devin Gardner for a touchdown). Michigan's running game played virtually no part in getting them down the field, and what sucks is that they couldn't even if they wanted to.

Adding Denard Robinson's legs to the mix would have been worse for Michigan than for Alabama. There were a lot of reasons why Michigan lost this game, not the least of which is that Alabama is really, really good. But the game wasn't lost because Al Borges made the correct decision to attack Alabama where they were "weakest" (again, stretching the term) and that was against their secondary.

The biggest thing that we have to understand from this game is that Michigan's offense is, as Borges notes in the press conference, still a work in progress. While Denard is not Borges's prototypical passer, Borges is still working with him, and he is getting better. Against teams that aren't the defending national champions, we should see a noticeable difference.

The other thing that shocks me is how people forget we are still in the process of transitioning to a new offensive system (though, again, utilizing what we have, making decisions based on the situation at hand) and are still recovering from the worst period in Michigan football history. Remember that Michigan has lost worse games than to No. 2-ranked Alabama. I mean, it's like the No. 8 ranking warped everyone's minds and made them think Michigan was somehow a dark horse contender for the national title. No, we still have a long way to go.

"It's the first game, tough opponent," Borges said. "Our kids are resilient, and we've got some good leaders on this team. It's a tough way to start -- for all of us, for the coaches, for the players -- but you've got 11 games. If I'm not mistaken, Oregon played LSU last year. Wasn't it the same game [as ours, Cowboys Classic]? What was the score of that game? It wasn't even close. How did Oregon do ... after the game? I think they won 11 games. So, it's not [lost]. You don't chuck it all. You've got to be resilient. You've got to get back to the basics."

Russell Bellomy Brings Solid Depth to Quarterback Position

At Michigan’s 2012 spring game, the play on the field was largely vanilla—no deep passes were thrown—but it did provide the coaches with an opportunity to get their backup players some reps. If you missed the spring game, you can see it in its entirety here.

Most notably in the scrimmage came the play of quarterback Russell Bellomy, the 6’3” 185-pound redshirt freshman from Arlington, Texas. According to Michigan’s coaches, he is third behind Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner. However, based on Bellomy’s performance in the spring game, he could be a lot closer to the getting the backup job than Gardner is to keeping it. You can see all of Bellomy’s offensive snaps in the game here.

Bellomy was one of the late recruits to Michigan’s 2011 class, committing in the first weeks of Brady Hoke’s hiring. Offensive coordinator Al Borges said that Bellomy “was recruited by some teams that I have a lot of respect for recruiting quarterbacks.” (Borges is likely referring to Purdue, Boise State, and Michigan State, all of whom offered Bellomy scholarships and all of whom have developed outstanding quarterbacks. Bellomy was previously committed to Purdue before his Michigan offer.)

“When I first got here,” Borges told reporters back in February 2011, “there was no recruited quarterback, so we were trying to find a quarterback. After looking at [Bellomy], doing some quick research, a quick cram course on all the kids that were candidates for the scholarship, he checked out at every turn. I talked to several coaches who were recruiting him—maybe they had already signed a quarterback, but [they] were really, really high on him. I got great reports. That, but even more so, the research I did on my own—having a chance to watch tape and talk to his coach—I was sold on the kid.”

It’s amazing how Bellomy was only rated as a three-star quarterback coming out of high school when his highlight tape looks more like that of a five-star quarterback. (Seriously, it is more impressive than No. 1 2012 quarterback Gunner Kiel’s.) Bellomy has really good accuracy (then for a high school senior) and a really strong arm, and he’s not limited to the pocket. If you watch his tape, he has some decent wheels and can definitely be considered a dual-threat.

So, why the low rating? MGoBlog's Tim (the site's recruiting blogger at the time) seemed to think it was because of Bellomy’s long-standing commitment to Purdue before he switched to Michigan. Recruiting websites have little regard for the Boilermakers, whom they consider to be a mid-level Big Ten team, and they sometimes grade their recruits unfairly. Also, consider this: skilled quarterbacks in the state of Texas are a dime a dozen, and it’s possible Bellomy was overlooked because of the sheer quantity of quality Texas recruits. (This would also explain why for the past few years the No.1-rated quarterbacks have come from states that have significantly fewer blue-chips: Gunner Kiel from Indiana, and Max Browne from Washington. Talent tends to stick out in an area where it is uncommon.)

Nevertheless, I cannot say enough how much I like this guy. Bellomy’s phenomenal high school highlight reel aside, he was good enough to be the main quarterback on the scout team and kept the defense on their toes enough to prepare them for 2011’s toughest challenges.

Before Bellomy even had an offer from the Wolverines, he came off as a humble yet determined, team-oriented Michigan Man in the making. Bob Wager, Bellomy's high school football coach, described him as "an outstanding student," having "a 4.0 GPA academically and a 1100 plus on his SAT."

"He’s done a masterful job of maintaining the balance of being a student-athlete," Wager told Go Blue Wolverine, Michigan football's premier (but unofficial) recruiting site. "He’s a team captain, as voted by his teammates, which I think is one of the great honors you can have. I think he’s going to make the team better and the campus better the moment he steps on because of the type of person he is . . . In Russell’s words, Michigan was one of his absolute dream schools. I think certainly anytime you go up to that environment, even here in the great state of Texas, we recognize the fact that Michigan is one of the premier football traditions in all of college football and I’m sure that had a profound impact to have an opportunity to go up and visit Ann Arbor."

Brady Hoke and Al Borges got themselves a major steal with this one.

The 2012 spring game was a bit of a validation for anyone who saw Bellomy’s highlight reel and concluded he was the Real McCoy, a solid, competent game manager—which is always satisfying to throw back in the faces of the doubters. Of course, what naturally emerged from Bellomy’s performance was a discussion of what this means for backup quarterback Devin Gardner, who has continued to struggle not only in spring games but also in actual games. Gardner’s first snap in his 2010 spring game debut was a fumble, but it was largely written off because he was then a freshman. He is now a junior.

“If Gardner's been really good and Bellomy uninspiring but solid and mistake-light throughout the spring, only one of these traits came through on Saturday,” wrote MGoBlog’s Brian after the 2012 spring game. “In three consecutive spring games [Devin Gardner has] looked bad.”

This also came after the recent speculation and rumors that Devin Gardner might be switching his position to wide receiver, and that he might actually be doing really well there—which shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. Gardner is a raw athlete who has always shown impressive speed as a scrambler and, at 6’4”, 205 lbs., he’d be the tallest wide receiver on Michigan’s roster.

In terms of Michigan’s coaches putting the best players on the field, and Gardner actually getting some more frequent playing time before he graduates, this is not a bad deal.

Last year I profiled Devin Gardner as a “Player to Watch in 2011” largely because I figured that his tall frame was better suited to a pro-style, pocket pass-focused offense than was Denard Robinson’s 6’0” frame. I also thought that, even with Gardner regulated to the backup position, he would still be eventually better suited to run the offense in the future. These thoughts are now shown to be somewhat shortsighted and were possibly obscured by the fact that Gardner was a five-star quarterback coming out of high school and the nation’s No. 1 dual-threat quarterback prospect of 2010.

Much like Fitzgerald Toussaint securing the feature running-back position, Denard Robinson has become the unanimously clear choice as Michigan's feature quarterback. I would be shocked if he lost the starting job to either Gardner or Bellomy. The battle between the two of them now seems to be for the backup job, and Bellomy has the advantage.

This isn’t a bad thing. For the first time since 2007, Michigan finally has depth at quarterback. With Warren De La Salle’s Shane Morris joining the roster in 2013 after Denard graduates, we can finally stop worrying about Michigan’s quarterback position. Even if Morris doesn’t nab the starting job as a true freshman and Gardner is moved to wide receiver for the remainder of his career, Bellomy will by then be capable enough to be the starter and manage the offense while Morris develops.

Brian Cook’s Hail to the Victors magazine wrote in 2011 that “a lack of recruiting stability was rare in Bo Schembechler’s era” at Michigan. The same was true of quarterback stability, even through the Lloyd Carr era.

For the first time in a long time, that stability has returned.

Wolverines Capitalize on Nebraska's Mistakes in 45-17 Win

Did anyone see this win coming? Well, I certainly didn't.

Speculation in college football is often a cruel mistress. We often try to make bold predictions and at other times still be skeptical. We look at games on the schedule and where we are as a team and think, "There's no way we can win that one." Well, after Michigan defeated Nebraska in a 45-17 rout, I looked pretty silly for saying before the season that the Wolverines only a 17% chance of winning. I also said that Michigan wasn't a dominating team. Both appear to be wrong.

Well, sort of: I still won't say that Michigan is a dominating team, but I will say that they are significantly improved. Significantly. It almost looks like a completely different squad out there. That's what's so baffling: these are by and large the same players that Rich Rodriguez had during the 2010 season, where Michigan went 7-5 and lost those seven games (as well as a sixth in the Gator Bowl) in the most embarrassing way possible. Last year, Michigan was ranked 112th in yards allowed. Now they're ranked 14th in total defense. There is no question you can ask except: What the hell happened?!

A lot of it is Brady Hoke, and the rest of it is Greg Mattison. (Also, side props to defensive backs coach Curt Mallory.) To change a defense so dramatically in the span of one year is beyond remarkable. I'm still blown away by it. During the game against Nebraska, former Florida head coach and current ESPN color commenter Urban Meyer said that Michigan had "the most improved defense in America." He is certainly right.

The reason why the Wolverines beat Nebraska so convincingly is largely because of three words: time of possession. Michigan had the ball for roughly 42-43 minutes of the entire game, while Nebraska had it for 17-18 minutes. That's the defense keeping Nebraska off the field—the Cornhuskers didn't convert a third down until the fourth quarter—and the Michigan offense maintaining control of the ball and wearing the Nebraska defense down. Fans saw what happens when Michigan is able to establish a running game: Fitzgerald Toussaint powered his way over Nebraska, and quarterback Denard Robinson had a good game on the ground too. That threat, combined with Denard's good passing game (he had a beautiful touchdown pass to wide receiver Martavious Odoms at the fifty to the endzone), was too much for Nebraska to handle.

Michigan still faced its share of challenges. The power had gone out in Michigan Stadium and players were unable to see the play clock. The officials used hand signals to show when it was counting down. At least one time Denard Robinson suffered a delay of game penalty because he had watched the umpire instead of the official hand-signaling the countdown. Brady Hoke, however, took the blame for the mistake. "The first one, the penalty we had, that's on me," he said. "I should have called a timeout. For me not to do that, that's bad coaching." (The Michigan fan base later helped Denard out by vocally counting down the play clock. The power was eventually restored to Michigan Stadium.)

Detroit News writer Bob Wojnowski, who had called for the firing of Rich Rodriguez last November after the loss to Ohio State, says that Brady Hoke has brought Michigan back to prominence. "They pounded with power and attacked with animosity," Wojnowski wrote of the Michigan-Nebraska game in his weekly column. "On a chilly November afternoon, you could see it again, and you finally can say it again. Michigan's football identity is back, quicker than expected. And also just in time. This wasn't the final piece of evidence, but it certainly was the most compelling. What happened Saturday in Michigan Stadium is what used to happen. A big, physical foe rolled into town and ran smack into a wall of pads. The Wolverines' 45-17 rout of the Cornhuskers was their best game of the year, by far, and the loudest statement of the Brady Hoke era, by far."

Was this game a statement? Yes, it was. Michigan showed a full Big House against Nebraska exactly what they would have been if they had capitalized on the mistakes of Iowa and Michigan State. They would have easily won. They established a running game and stopped Nebraska from running the ball. It seems like an old, tired adage, but right now it feels like nothing could be closer to the truth. The tougher team usually wins.

Make no mistake: Nebraska had a tough team against Michigan. Quarterback Taylor Martinez ran effectively several times, showing the speed that put him in Heisman talks early in the season, and when he saw a receiver run past Michigan's safeties, he threw a touchdown. However, Nebraska lost because it committed too many errors on special teams and could not offset Michigan's seemingly magical ability to force turnovers. (The Cornhuskers had five turnovers, while the Wolverines had one.) It was a welcome game between two teams who argue over who was the true National Champion in 1997. If this game was the decider, Michigan won.

During the entire game, Chris Spielman and Urban Meyer talked about how much of a threat Denard Robinson is when he is allowed to run. "He is a runner first and a passer second," Meyer said. They were also critical of the games when Hoke and offensive coordinator Al Borges decided to limit Robinson's carries, despite the reasoning that the coaches didn't want him to get injured. "If I'm the opposing coach," Spielman said, "I'm happy to see Devin Gardner come out."

Denard was mainly allowed to cut loose because it is that time of the season. Granted, he didn't carry the entire offense on his back as he did under Rich Rodriguez—and he'll be thanking Fitzgerald Toussiant for bearing the majority of the load—but Denard did get a lot of carries in this game largely because Michigan doesn't really have anything to lose. They won't be playing in the Big Ten championship, and the only regular-season game following this one is Ohio State, so why hold back? The trepidation that Denard Robinson will get injured before the game against the Buckeyes is now gone, and that means look out.

As much as this game was a satisfying victory, I think the main reason why it feels so good is because it's a sign of things to come. Spielman and Meyer also talked at length about the freshmen that are on the field on defense (Brennan Beyer, Blake Countess, Desmond Morgan, in particular) and how they're making impact plays. 

"When you have three true freshmen that are big time players and contributors on your defense, that kind of shows where a little bit of their talent might have been depleted on the defensive side over the years, and that shows what Brady Hoke is doing as far as recruiting," Spielman said. "And once they get the talent that they need at Michigan—they're a Michigan defense now—they'll really be a Michigan defense when that talent starts rolling in."

It's certainly an encouraging thought. It was an even better win—and, for these players, after everything they've been through, it was even more deserved. Michigan now stands at 9-2.

Michigan Defense Makes Tough Stand against Illinois, Will Face Stiff Test against Nebraska

Michigan defeated Illinois last Saturday, 31-14, largely because of what looked like an overpowering defense. Last week, the Wolverines had dropped 9 ranks in the polls after their loss to Iowa, going from No. 15 to No. 24 for the Illinois game. Michigan apparently fixed a lot of its mistakes—though there are still many—as it was able to score a touchdown on its first drive and shut out Illinois for the entire first half. We have really seen the difference between last year's coaches and the one led by Greg Mattison and Brady Hoke.

Despite giving up two touchdowns and a couple of big plays, the defense overall had an outstanding game. It is perhaps more outstanding because, with mostly the same players, the team gave up 65 points in a triple overtime win only a year earlier. 2010's defense couldn't stop anybody. In this game the defense racked up four sacks, limiting Illinois to 37 net rushing yards. The defense was hardly flawless, however. At least three times the defenders bit on the zone-read option play when Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhasse kept the ball himself, and one of those resulted in one of Illinois's two touchdowns.

Aside from Michigan's sacks, the defense was impressive in its third down stance. Illinois only converted 5 of 17 third downs, many of which were on third and one. Michigan cornerback J.T. Floyd also played well: he not only did a good job containing Illinois primary receiver A.J. Jenkins, but Floyd also picked off one of Scheelhasse's passes and returned it for 43 yards. Again, this might not sound like much, but it is impressive given how much Scheelhasse and the Illinois offense was able to completely pick apart the Michigan defense last year. This squad has really improved.

Most of Michigan's struggles, however, came on offense. Denard Robinson scored Michigan's first two touchdowns rushing, but his total rushing yards were limited. He was also injured in the second half, which prompted Devin Gardner to play from under center. Gardner himself has been questionable all year, despite our encouraging profile piece on him a while back. Gardner did show a bit of improvement as quarterback, most notably with a pass to Martavious Odoms that went for a touchdown. Our estimation is that Gardner will improve with more experience. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint also had a really good game, racking up a career-high 192 yards rushing. Illinois never even sniffed that.

As is often the case following a win, there's a lot of optimism around the Michigan blogs and a lot of praise surrounding the defense. In both their posts and weekly podcast, MGoBlog gives rightful props to the defense and is quite impressed with J.T. Floyd:

A.J. Jenkins may have gotten his requisite eight catches for 100 yards but Scheelhaase had to work for it. At one point they showed some Jenkins stats and noted that he had five catches… and fourteen targets. According to Adam Jacobi he ended with eight on 20. That's 5 [yards per attempt] throwing to a guy who may be the best [wide receiver] in the Big Ten.

Even that undersells Floyd's day. The deep ball that took Jenkins's stats from mediocre to decent was zone coverage in the middle of the field Floyd was not directly responsible for (and it came after Scheelhaase was given all day). When involved Floyd was all over double moves and jumped a third and short pass for the interception that sealed the game with a little help from Gardner and Odoms.

Dave at Maize n Brew has let out a much-needed sigh of relief that Michigan was finally able to get to eight wins, something it hasn't achieved since 2007. "The transformation of this defense has been astounding," he wrote. "Through 10 games Michigan has 21 sacks. This compared to a paltry 18 sacks through 13 games last season. Over the past three years Michigan's defense has allowed Juice Williams, Justin Siller, and Matt McGloin to torch it. Read that again and try not to cry. But today... man... it's just amazing. This is now a defense that corralled a mobile, talented quarterback to the tune of four sacks and a pick. Even more impressive, they held Illinois to just 37 yards rushing. 37 yards. That's almost a 10th of the 315 rushing yards they gave up a year ago. The difference is night and day. And the difference is shown in the win column. Eight."

This was a good win. Michigan still isn't a world-beater on both sides of the ball, but it was nice to see the Wolverines get down in the grit and stuff Illinois when they absolutely had to. That's why defense is so important: when the other team isn't scoring, even if your own offense isn't as productive as you'd like them to be, it still takes a lot of the pressure off.

"We are really proud of our kids," defensive-minded Brady Hoke said in a recent press conference, "and how they played on Saturday, how they went out there as a team. I think we really complemented each other as a football team, in a lot of ways. Offensively, taking the ball down in the first possession and scoring always helps you, from a mindset and your enthusiasm when you play the game. Defensively, I thought our defense played awfully well, and played together."

Michigan last two games of the regular season will be played at home, the first of which is against Nebraska. This will arguably be the toughest test Michigan, and certainly their defense, will face before a bowl game. (Ohio State, having lost to Purdue but having beaten Wisconsin, is difficult to analyze.) Nebraska has played well all year, with its only two losses of the season so far coming to Wisconsin, which was expected, and Northwestern, in an upset. MGoBlog isn't too worried about Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez, however: "…if you've ever watched Martinez throw…eesh. Imagine Denard passing, but instead of an arm he has a chicken wing. Expect to see Jordan Kovacs nuzzling the line of scrimmage frequently."

Meanwhile, Nebraska's defense may prove to be the difference. It is a lot better than Michigan State's. Recently Michigan's offensive coordinator Al Borges has said that the Nebraska defense is "good. Well coached. I had an opportunity to coach against coach Pelini when I was at Auburn. They do a great job with their four match zone, where they take your guys away. They cover you. They're one of those defenses like a couple we're played this year that really want to take it all away. They don't want the ball checked down. They don't want the ball thrown down field. They want to take away the run. There's no bend but don't break in their style. They know what they're doing, and they know how to coach."

Before the season started, Nebraska was the game I was most worried about, giving Michigan's chance to win a measly 17%. The season has evolved and changed a lot since then: I also expected Michigan to lose to what I thought was going to be a very prepared Notre Dame.

Can Michigan afford to lose to Nebraska? Well, yes and no. As a true fanatic, I can't say that Michigan is ever allowed to lose any game, but like Iowa, a loss to Nebraska won't be soul-crushing. They are a good team who have come into the Big Ten and have made a statement. 

Like most of the Big Ten teams, however, they've also been upset in surprising defeats. I almost want to say that Michigan should use this game as preparation for Ohio State, because that's essentially all it is. Michigan will not be going to the inaugural Big Ten Championship game, which we never really expected since all we wanted was an 8-4 season with OSU and MSU being among those eight.

Illinois had a good rushing defense, but Michigan dominated it. Nebraska, of course, is better, but since Michigan wasn't completely routed or stalled by the Illini, there is the thought that they can muster the same performance. Hopefully it would carry over, because Ohio State has a good defense, too.

It will be an adequate test, before the ultimate one.

Gameplay Against Iowa Exposes Michigan's Weaknesses

Well, we're at that point in the season, the point where we can start to see exactly what kind of team we have.

In the first half of the season, we tried as hard as we could to remain objective. Michigan seemed like a team that wasn't a world-beater but was a team that still found a way to win. Now, well into the meat of the Big Ten, we know the sober truth: Michigan certainly isn't a world-beater, and it has weaknesses. Despite Brady Hoke's high hopes for his first season, the Wolverines will not contend for the Big Ten title.

To some degree, this was to be expected. It was Hoke's first year, he and Borges are trying to gradually incorporate the pro-style offense while still retaining elements of Rich Rodriguez's spread, and the defense is steadily improving. As much as Hoke loves Michigan and wants to win championships, we knew there was a difference between being realistic and being unrealistic. A Big Ten title in Hoke's first year seemed out of the question at first, then Michigan's first six games gave us a little too much optimism, and now we're back.

This isn't to say that Hoke hasn't done a phenomenal job for a first year Michigan head coach. He did a great job uniting the fanbase, locking down the state's top recruits, and starting his coaching era with a bang. 

His team played their hearts out against a Notre Dame team that they probably should have lost to and instead won. The Wolverines faced the team that Hoke built in San Diego and, despite a capable Ryan Lindley and dangerous Ronnie Hillman, stalled them. Northwestern made us believe that Hoke's team could overcome virtually any obstacles.

However, the fact remains: Michigan has a long way to go. Iowa showed us what happens when Michigan cannot establish a solid running game, and it reminded us that, while Michigan may have talent, it is not dominating. Michigan has gone from being especially bad to being mediocre—which is why the defense looks so good. Mediocre teams beat bad ones every day of the week, but it can't stand up to the solid, really good ones. Don't get me wrong: this is a necessary stage in Michigan's improvement. It is unreasonable to expect greatness overnight.

Michigan mounted a last-ditch effort to take Iowa into overtime, driving all the way to the goal line, but it wasn't meant to be. Michigan fans everywhere will gripe about the fourth-and-goal pass interference on Roy Roundtree that wasn't called. They will say that Michigan could have won, and they'd be right. Michigan could have won this game, but their slow start finally came back to haunt them. After the Wolverines failed to produce points on their opening drive, they spent the entire game trying to play catch up. The defense kept the game close (although Jake Ryan was mysteriously absent), but Michigan's greater weaknesses have been exposed on offense. Iowa did exactly what Michigan State did: prevent Michigan from establishing the run, force Denard Robinson to pass, and get him out of rhythm. The only difference between this game and the Notre Dame one was that Iowa prevented Robinson from getting into a rhythm for the entire game.

As I walked out of the bar where I had watched the Michigan game, someone saw my Michigan gear and asked, "How did Michigan do today?"

"We lost," I said. "To Iowa."

"Iowa???"

Exactly.

It was a sobering reminder of what Michigan used to be: a dominating team. Iowa may have recently gotten good, basing their offensive and defensive models off of old-school Michigan and Ohio State because that's what you needed in the Big Ten, but Michigan was always better—until the radical departure brought by Rich Rodriguez.

Now, I'm not going to harp on Rodriguez about this. He genuinely believed that his spread and 3-3-5 could work in the Big Ten, and even today there are proponents who continue to argue this. Then there's too much evidence to the contrary, and that evidence being Big Ten teams who roll over us: despite the Michigan's defense's effort, Iowa's Marcus Coker's power running was their primary reason for yardage and, ultimately, scores. It would have been uglier if Michigan didn't have Greg Mattison.

Of course, a lot of Michigan fans are griping about the offense. MGoBlog, a continued advocate for Rich Rodriguez, has taken an obligatory turn to the negative and the unhopeful: "Michigan's played three games against BCS teams with winning records. In each they've fallen behind by multiple scores. Yardage in those games before entering desperation chuck mode: 130 (Notre Dame), 226 (MSU), and 166 (Iowa). Whatever the plan is, it doesn't seem to be working against teams better than Minnesota." The article's writer, Brian Cook, believes that the primary reason for Michigan's recent struggle is the possibility that Denard Robinson isn't being used effectively:

"Denard has limitations. They are severe. He has assets that offset those. They are not being used effectively. He was an All-American last year and is being derided as plain 'not very good' on blogs; he won't sniff a Heisman vote. He's gone backwards. The question is why. Candidate answers: a) Losing Martell Webb, Darryl Stonum, and Steve Schilling, b) Losing Rich Rodriguez, c) Aging backwards like Benjamin Button. I'll take door B."

To clarify, Denard Robinson was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year in 2010, but he was not an All-American. Michigan also struggled against the tougher Big Ten teams (including Iowa) last year, under the leadership of Rich Rodriguez. So I'm less inclined to believe that Rodriguez is the component missing in order to make Michigan beat every team it faces.

What we can say along those lines, however, is that Rodriguez's effect is still being felt: more than half of the players on Michigan's team were identified and recruited by Rodriguez. He notably preferred speed over size. With him gone, the players have done their best to work with the new coaches, they have worked extremely hard, and a lot of that has paid off. But it's not a dominating team, or Michigan would have put Iowa away in the first half.

This leaves us looking towards the future, again. Michigan has three opportunities left to prove that they are a different team from 2010. Nebraska will likely be the toughest bout, despite being played in Michigan Stadium, and Ohio State is getting back to its old self. The pressure to beat the Buckeyes rises with each loss, and I'm not excited about the bowl Michigan will play in. (I'm hoping for the Texas Bowl, but even that won't be pretty.)

Michigan will have to use every game as an opportunity for improvement. They need to get better. I'm confident that Brady Hoke can do that, but it doesn't change the fact that I'm also very nervous about the rest of the season.

How Good is San Diego State?

When Brady Hoke left San Diego State in January for his dream job at Michigan, Rocky Long received an offer to come with him. There was already wide speculation that San Diego State's athletic director Jim Sterk would attempt to make Long the replacement head coach of the Aztecs, since Long already possessed experience as a head coach. However, it wasn't certain if Long wanted to be a head coach again. He had achieved moderate success at his alma mater, New Mexico, before eventually stepping down and taking a defensive coordinator position at San Diego State under Hoke.

Hoke wanted Long to know he had the option of coming to Michigan if he wasn't interested in being a head coach. "He called me," Long said. "He knew that Jim Sterk was going to offer me this job. He called me and said, 'Well, what are you going to do?' and I said, 'I don't know.' He said, 'Well, you can come to Michigan if you want.' Now, I don't know if that was being offered a job or not. I don't know if it was going to be the same job there or not the same job, but he did say I could come to Michigan if I wanted to."

It was an intriguing offer, to be sure, but Long couldn't help but think of the program that he and Hoke had worked so hard to establish. He didn't want the Aztecs to start over. Did he consider the Michigan job? Yes. Did being a head coach again have anything to do with Long's decision to stay? "No, I think that was the least of my motivation," he said. "The biggest part of my motivation was that we had kids here who had made tremendous progress from where they had started and I hated to see them start over again."

Rocky Long was instrumental in helping Brady Hoke build the Aztecs' program. Before Hoke and Long arrived, San Diego State was ranked 113th in yards allowed and points allowed. By 2010 (Hoke's second year), the Aztecs were ranked 43rd in yards allowed and 36th in points allowed. They came within five points of beating a TCU team that would go on to whip Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, and after a good 8-4 season, San Diego State faced Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl and won. It was the Aztecs' first bowl victory in 41 years. Hoke took a team that hadn't been to a bowl game since 1998 and put them on the map.

There's no lack of appreciation for what Brady Hoke did for San Diego State. "Hoke's legacy, albeit a short one, is that he brought a sense of toughness to a program that always had good athletes but constantly seemed to underachieve," said Kevin Gemmell for the San Diego Union Tribune.

Hoke's departure for Michigan hardly came as a surprise to anyone in San Diego. When players learned that Michigan had fired Rich Rodriguez, there was a strong sense that Hoke might receive the job offer. As further evidence of this, Hoke had said when he first took the head coaching position at San Diego State that Michigan was his dream job. So, the Aztecs understood why he left but were still sad to see him go.

When Aztec quarterback Ryan Lindley was asked about Hoke's departure immediately after the fact, Lindley said, "You know, you're upset, and it's something that this whole process since last week, since hearing about them firing their coach, you're kind of crossing your fingers, hoping it doesn't go down that way, but you knew it was a possibility. So, I mean, we were all kind of braced for that, and I think with what's gone on in the last twenty-four hours, with Coach Long coming in and Mr. Sterk just acting as quickly as possible, it's been a great situation—considering."

Since most of the players were on break during the hire, Hoke never got the chance to say goodbye to them in person. He was forced to send text messages. "You never do it the right way," Hoke said in a recent press conference. "They were on fall break, so no one was there, only the guys in San Diego. You send a text because you couldn't get them all together. There was a time element and everything, obviously. We had a full team meeting when I left Ball State, my alma mater, that was hard to leave and hard to leave those kids. So we were fortunate to be able to do that. We couldn't do it out there [in San Diego]."

Coaching transitions are rarely smooth, and few would say that losing a successful coach is a "good situation." However, it seems like everything worked out as well as possible for both Michigan and San Diego State. The fact that Rocky Long stayed allowed the Aztecs to maintain a good sense of continuity, which allowed them to continue the momentum that Hoke established. Brady Hoke might not have been able to bring Long with him as defensive coordinator, but it allowed him to hire Greg Mattison. Hoke went to work trying to bring back Michigan to what it used to be, and Long kept up what Hoke started in San Diego. And as much as the Aztecs appreciate what Hoke did for them, they appreciate Rocky Long's decision even more. He stayed when he just as easily could have gone. The results are that both teams had successful starts to their respective seasons and each is entering the contest at 3-0.

In a game that is likely going to run high with emotion for both sides, San Diego State will face Michigan tomorrow in the Big House. It may prove to be the Wolverines' toughest non-conference game of the season. The Aztecs are coming off an exciting comeback win over Washington State, who recently dominated their opponents offensively despite struggling to put together winning seasons in 2009 and 2010. San Diego State's game against Michigan will be even bigger, in front of 110,000 fans on a stage that many of them have never played before. Will beating Hoke be a factor? The Aztecs say they're more focused on Michigan's players than the coaches.

They might be nervous if they didn't have enough weapons to give the developing Michigan defense headaches. San Diego State's running back, Ronnie Hillman, was a Freshman All-American in 2010 and put up 1,532 total yards and 17 total touchdowns last year. (The Wolverines, on the other hand, haven't had a running back break 1,000 yards in a season since Mike Hart.) Hillman has also been in early Heisman talks.

Meanwhile, San Diego State's quarterback Ryan Lindley has developed into a prototypical pro-style passer under the tutelage of Al Borges (now Michigan's offensive coordinator), and Lindley put up 3,830 total yards and 28 total touchdowns in 2010. He had continued to be effective so far this year and will likely be a fourth or fifth round NFL draft pick. The Aztecs lost their excellent receivers to graduation, but Rocky Long fixed the gap at wide receiver by bringing over Colin Lockett from cornerback, and he has been getting a lot of receptions—enough to where some consider him Lindley's new favorite target.

The Aztec defense, like Michigan's, is a work in progress. Michigan has switched back to 4-3 defensive scheme under Greg Mattison, since the Wolverines could never seem to be effective under the 3-3-5 that Rich Rodriguez insisted then-coordinator Greg Robinson (who had sparse knowledge of the 3-3-5) coach. However, at San Diego State, Rocky Long is the master of the 3-3-5, since he practically invented it. "What Rocky Long has done—and I've been lucky, I've coached with Rocky twice at UCLA and San Diego State, and against him when I was at Oregon, I've seen both sides of him—he's taken a 3-3 concept and created a lot of looks from the 3-3 that makes it hardly recognizable as a 3-3," said Michigan offensive coordinator Al Borges. "What seems to be very helter-skelter is not at all. It's a very disciplined style: every guy's in a gap, everyone has a responsibility, coverage is sound, but it's not what you see every week, and that requires a little more preparation. It's almost like facing a wishbone team when you've never seen a wishbone team."

When Brady Hoke was coach of the Aztecs, he allowed Long to run the scheme that Long knew best, and that happened to be the 3-3-5. Hoke has done the same with Mattison and the 4-3. Instead of micromanage, the effect that Hoke brings to his defenses—since Hoke considers himself a defensive-minded coach—is a foundation of fundamentals and technique combined with a strong aspect of physical and mental toughness. This effect, at least early on, appears to be palpable, and it's largely the reason Hoke was successful in rebuilding the program and eventually was offered the Michigan job.

What made Aztec fans so pleased with Rocky Long was that he said he wasn't going to change anything that Hoke cemented. That sense of toughness was going to continue on both sides of the ball. Long also doesn't micromanage his coordinators either. When asked about the differences and difficulties in being a coordinator versus being a head coach, Long answered, "I think there's real problems if you don't trust the guys on the other side of the ball. I think a head coach that is a micromanager cannot do it and if he tries to do it, he's ruining his football team." Long went on to say that what he shares with his coordinators (like Hoke did with him) is a philosophy, a vision of what they'd like to see the team become. While Long serves as his own defensive coordinator, he brought in Andy Ludwig from Cal-Berkeley to be San Diego State's offensive coordinator. (Ludwig runs the same pro-style offense that Borges essentially did, and this continuity has made Aztec fans very happy, and it's one of the main reasons they have started out 3-0.) Long said that Ludwig is in "complete control" over the offense during games, but that their philosophical similarities allow for that coaching trust.

If Michigan fans aren't worried about losing to San Diego State, then they should be. Despite my continued efforts to remind the Michigan faithful that the Aztecs are not to be underestimated, there are still some people who think that Michigan will win simply because we have Denard. However, my point stands: this will not be an easy game. The Aztecs have more than enough motivation to eek out a win on what seems to be an unsuspecting Michigan home crowd, and Rocky Long's strategy ("It doesn't matter what conference you're in; we can play anyone, anywhere, anytime") has allowed them to snap losing streaks against BCS teams. Michigan does have an advantage over San Diego State, if only because Brady Hoke and Al Borges are incredibly familiar with the Aztec personnel and what they like to run. However, the Aztecs' recent trend means that an upset is more than possible.

Thankfully, Michigan's coaches and players aren't overlooking their opponents. Brady Hoke even tried to get the game "un-scheduled" when he first arrived in Ann Arbor. He had been a part of scheduling the game when he was back in San Diego because he thought his Aztec team would be good enough to play Michigan. Now, he's on the other side, and it's starting to feel a little awkward. However, both Hoke and Long have said that "there's no animosity" between them.

The two opposing defenses will have a difficult time containing each other's offenses. Michigan's run defense will struggle against Ronnie Hillman, who constantly seems to make players miss, and San Diego State will have the unenviable task of containing Denard Robinson. Ryan Lindley is also a far more developed passer who will be the best test to Michigan's secondary that they will face before heading into the Big Ten and against such teams as Northwestern and Michigan State, who each rely on heavy passing games.

The good news for both teams is that a loss does not affect either's conference standing. Both Michigan and San Diego State, while they admittedly would be satisfied with a win, have winning their conference as a far greater priority. Moreover, and I've stressed this before, a loss should not be humiliating for either team. Michigan fans should be pleased with how much Hoke has developed the Aztecs and, regardless of how the game ends, what it means for Hoke's new team. Meanwhile, for San Diego State, any result could spark momentum when they return to Qualcomm Stadium for their bout against TCU: a win and they'll want to continue the momentum, a loss and they'll want to get it back.

Both teams should also be pleased with their head coaches. Even if the Aztecs don't defeat Hoke's Wolverines, San Diego State's fans should still be happy to have Rocky Long, who considers himself blessed to have a second chance to be a head coach and who has done a fantastic job with the start of the 2011 season. The Aztecs haven't been 3-0 since 1981, and a lot of that is thanks to what Long has done to keep the consistency of Hoke's foundation. When he was re-introduced as San Diego State's head coach, Long was gracious and thankful for the fans' immediate support.

"I'd like you all to know how excited I am and how proud I am to be a part of the Aztec nation," he said. "And I promise you one thing: we will do everything we can, we will work our butts off to make sure we have a winning football team here that goes to bowl games."

Wolverines Defeat Eagles Handily, but Must Continue to Improve

Hopefully, for Ron English's sake, last Saturday's game will be the last time that Eastern Michigan plays the Wolverines. English has a tough enough time getting wins without scheduling Michigan to boot. There is small upside for Eastern Michigan, however: the payout. EMU's athletic department gets $465,000 for playing Michigan in the Big House.

For the Wolverines, there is little one can analyze from a win that was realistically expected. Although the team got off to another rough start, something which has become a recent trend, Michigan eventually played how it was supposed to and finished 31-3. There should be some praise for the defense, which prevented Eastern Michigan from scoring a single touchdown, but Eastern Michigan is a MAC team. Michigan's offense has struggled to find a rhythm in the beginning. Including all three first games, Michigan has been outscored by opponents 21-0 in the first quarter. (Last week, Notre Dame scored two unanswered touchdowns, and in the first week, Western Michigan scored one.) Michigan's offense has yet to score a single touchdown in the first quarter in any given game this season.

When Michigan's offense found its rhythm, it was effective, but there are some concerns. Offensive coordinator Al Borges seems unafraid to utilize speedy quarterback Denard Robinson's legs when the need arises, and the offense's halfback play has shown that the need arises quite often. The tailbacks do take a great deal of the load off of Denard, but the Wolverines have yet to establish a consistent running game utilizing them.

Across the Michigan fanbase, some people don't feel this is necessarily a bad thing when you have Denard as a threat. In fact, MGoBlog argues that the offense ought to be based on Denard's legs (i.e. his ability to run). However, personally, I get nervous whenever I see Denard take off on a designed run up the middle, because of the chance that Denard will fumble—which he did in the Eastern game—or that he'll get injured.

Michigan simply cannot get away with running Denard so much when the Big Ten schedule hits. I cringed numerous times when Denard ran into Eastern's defensive line and when he got stuffed on several runs. I'm not saying that I think Denard should never run. He is deadliest on the quarterback scramble, when he must create something out of nothing. On those plays, I am significantly less nervous, because Denard frequently gets to the outside, picks up enough yards for a first down or close to it, and then he steps out of bounds before he gets hit. This, I think, is the best use of his athletic ability, whereas having him run up the middle as though he were a halfback is asking for trouble. Michigan is dividing the carrying load between multiple running backs: Fitzgerald Toussiant, Michael Shaw, Vincent Smith, and for the last part of the game, freshman Thomas Rawls. Smith in particular seems the most improved out of all the running backs, although Toussaint and Shaw can consistently pick up good yardage. This is a good sign but it must be tempered with notion that Michigan hasn't hit the meat of the Big Ten schedule, where Michigan's running game will be harshly tested. 

The running backs scarcely put up yards against Notre Dame in the second week, which forced Al Borges to focus more on Denard's running and passing. It was clearly a priority to Borges and Brady Hoke to return some of the focus to Michigan's running backs, but Eastern Michigan, despite how well they may have been prepared under Ron English, cannot be seen as a truly adequate test.

Don't knock the Eagles, however. English has established a good running attack that gave Michigan some trouble in the first half, and it will carry over to the MAC, where they will be more successful. There is an even better indication that the Eastern Michigan program is turning around under Ron English's guidance. They have gained confidence with two wins to start the season, and although they lost to Michigan and play Penn State next week in Happy Valley, the Eagles start their conference play at home against Akron. It will be a far better year for EMU, who have a very good chance of going 4-8 or even 5-7. When the Eagles faced Michigan, they made a game of it. English should be proud of the signs of improvement seen in his team.

And despite the Wolverines winning 31-3 against Eastern Michigan, they'll need to continue to make improvements as well. Play on the field was hardly perfect. Denard Robinson's accuracy in the first quarter was frustrating to watch, as he missed most of his passes and threw an interception. Like against Notre Dame and Western Michigan, he seemed to make better reads and throws as the game progressed, and he racked up a few touchdowns with passes to tight end Kevin Koger and wide receiver Drew Dileo. Denard finished the game with a total of 293 yards, 198 rushing and 95 passing.

Michigan's defense didn't have its bearings early, but eventually they got settled and remained stout. They forced a fumble on EMU's Javonti Greene and recovered it. Michigan safety Thomas Gordon also made a one-handed inception. Jordan Kovacs and Brandin Hawthrone led the team in tackles, and Craig Roh achieved a sack for six yards. Finally, in what was perhaps the most relief for Michigan, placekicker Brendon Gibbons made a 21-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. The special teams unit has largely been a question mark for the Wolverines, and it's clear Brady Hoke is taking his time with them. You can check out highlights of the game here.

It was a good win for Michigan, but the Wolverines must improve week to week if they expect to be competitive against the upcoming Big Ten teams. Michigan's last remaining non-conference game is against Hoke's previous coaching job before Michigan, San Diego State. The Aztecs have continued the winning ways that Hoke established, and they are now 3-0 after an impressive win over Army and an even more impressive one over Washington State, who previously demolished its last two opponents with its seemingly unstoppable spread offensive attack. When asked about the upcoming game against his former Aztecs, Hoke indicated it wouldn't be easy. "I tell ya, we got our hands full," he said.

San Diego State is stout in its offensive and defensive lines, and it has great weapons in quarterback Ryan Lindley (an effective passer) and tailback Ronnie Hillman, who was named a Freshman All-American last year. With these players Hoke was able to lead the Aztecs to the Poinsettia Bowl in 2010 and win it. When Hoke departed for Michigan, Aztec defensive coordinator Rocky Long took over and has kept the continuity and consistency of Hoke's "toughness-oriented" program. Watching Long's press conferences, you'd think he took over a program that was struggling. He frequently makes sobering statements about the Aztecs' upcoming games, yet the Aztecs continue to win. Long had said that Washington State's offense genuinely "scared" him, because the only offenses his team had faced for the past three games were the triple option, and WSU's spread is the furthest thing from that. He wasn't sure how the team would handle it, but then San Diego State came out and beat WSU 42-24 at home. Long's strategy seems to underplay the upcoming opponent as much as he can before the Aztecs go out and beat them anyway. He has said that Michigan has a "huge advantage" over them because of Brady Hoke's knowledge of the San Diego State team.

That could be true, but if there is in fact a strategy to Long's words, we could be in for an upset. I was already a little nervous about San Diego State coming to Ann Arbor, urging Michigan fans not to expect an easy win in any capacity. Hoke established a program at San Diego State that could easily make it to a bowl game this year, and if Rocky Long continues what Hoke started, they could even contend for the Mountain West Conference title. They'll need to knock off TCU and Boise State to do that, but Hoke came very close to beating them last year, and if the game against Baylor is any indication, TCU may have a tendency to underestimate opponents.

San Diego State's game against Michigan does nothing for their conference play. It will simply be a feel-good win for either team. A win for the Aztecs will make them feel great that Hoke built their program essentially good enough to defeat Rich Rodriguez's, and it may even make them feel better about Hoke leaving. Will it be poetic justice for Hoke's departure? Some Aztec fans will say yes, but Hoke's separation from San Diego was no where near as messy as Rodriguez's was from West Virginia. In fact, most Aztec fans weren't surprised when Hoke left: he had said, after all, that Michigan was his dream job.

The circumstances indicate that a loss to San Diego State should not be humiliating considering how much Hoke has developed the Aztecs. Michigan fans may feel disappointed if they lose to Hoke's old team, but it shouldn't be all that painful. It won't affect Michigan's standing in the Big Ten, nor will it indicate that Hoke has his team moving in the wrong direction. If anything, a loss to San Diego State could bring a begrudging amount of comfort to the Michigan faithful: Hoke built a team that could beat Michigan. If he did that, imagine what he could do for the Wolverines. Contrastingly, a loss for San Diego State should not be damning to their program. They will have to contend against and somehow contain Michigan's Denard Robinson, and Michigan's defense is improving slowly but surely. Neither team will be a push-over. It will be interesting to see how the game plays out.

The Aztecs' offensive line and Ronnie Hillman will prove a good test for Michigan's run defense, which needs to substantially improve if it wishes to withstand the Big Ten. Pass defense isn't great either, but with Michigan's coaches focusing intensely on fundamentals, the Wolverines could do better against the Big Ten this year than they did in 2010. Michigan's first Big Ten match-up shouldn't be too hefty of a challenge as they start with Minnesota at home. The Golden Gophers have struggled but are not incapable, and they admittedly aren't exactly excited about Big Ten play. Michigan goes to Northwestern as their first road test. If they improve week to week, the Wolverines will be ready for Michigan State and, eventually, Ohio State.

Both rivals suffered losses in Week 3, prompting an array of question marks in certain areas. The Spartans' offensive line seems to be experiencing what Michigan's did last year and the year before, and their loss to Notre Dame sent the MSU fanbase into a predictable meltdown. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes' defense is still strong as ever, but they are understandably worried about their situation at quarterback. MSU's and OSU's eventual match-ups with Michigan are as close to as uncertain as possible at this point.

For the Big Ten, the 2011 season is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing. Nebraska, despite starting 3-0, might not be as dominant as we all thought, and Illinois could surprise everyone and become a contender. Michigan, of course, could be one as well. There is no such thing as a sure thing this year.

As much fun as looking at opponents' problems is, the Wolverines need to focus on what they need to do, and that means improvement. Brady Hoke seems to be developing a sense of depth on both sides of the ball, as there doesn't appear to be any egregious weaknesses at any position. Even Denard Robinson, who is considered both dangerously threatening and dangerously problematic, could improve by the time he leads the team into the Big Ten conference.

In 1969, Bo Schembechler was in his first year at Michigan and hit some bumps in the road as his Wolverines lost to No. 9 ranked Missouri and then to Michigan State. Yet he developed the team as the season went on, and when they faced No. 1 ranked Ohio State, they pulled out a spectacular upset that the Maize and Blue still cherish today. Admittedly, Brady Hoke may not be the next Bo Schembechler, but a good indicator of what Hoke can do will be seeing how his team improves. Rodriguez's teams actually seemed to get worse as the season went on—to frustrating and disappointing results. Michigan would start strong in games but then teetered off. Now, they appear to stumble in the beginning before staging a minor comeback and finishing strong. The Wolverines weren't the second-half team under Rodriguez that they appear to be today. This could mean that Hoke is definitively changing Michigan into a better program.

If he is, and if the Wolverines get better with each passing week, it'll make for an interesting season. Moreover, it could make 2011 feel like 1969.

Will 2011 Be Michigan's Comeback Year?

There's plenty of reason for optimism regarding Michigan football this upcoming season, but some Michigan fans are still skeptical. The Wolverines look to snap the losing streaks against their two most hated rivals: one, against the Ohio State Buckeyes, for seven years which has been far too long, and the second, against the Michigan State Spartans, for three years which is unacceptable. However, fans tend to attribute the losses against MSU more to Rich Rodriguez than anything else, since he slipped up in-state recruiting and it is highly doubtful Lloyd Carr's Wolverines would have suffered the same set of losses.

Rodriguez's frequent losses in "red-letter games," as athletic director Dave Brandon called them, ultimately resulted in his firing, as he posted a 15-22 record, and failing to defeat anyone worthwhile in the Big Ten. (The victory in 2008 against Wisconsin, when the Wolverines finished 3-9, is a notable exception.) Brandon went out and found a "Michigan Man," someone who understood the traditions vastly better than Rodriguez seemingly ever could. That Michigan Man is Brady Hoke who, despite plenty of jokes, jabs, and skepticism from certain Michigan blogs, might actually be a good football coach.

Even for the most skeptical Michigan fan, however, it is difficult to say that Hoke is doing a bad job. On his first day, Hoke showed his passion for Michigan with his first press conference. "We're going to have a pride in who we are," he said. "Everyone who's going to touch this program and deal with these kids is going to have a fanatical love for the University of Michigan or they won't work in the football office, I can tell you that."

What's interesting is that Hoke's speech seems both improvised and rehearsed. Whether he knew exactly what to say can be debated. It is possible that Hoke's passion for Michigan was so intense that he had been preparing for that day (when he would give his first speech) for the greater part of his life. It is also possible that Hoke simply said what he felt and said it honestly, without having to rehearse. It could be fun for him, perhaps, to just talk about Michigan. This is in large part why Hoke has convinced so many Michigan fans that he is the right man for the job, because he has connected with them, because he showed them why he loves Michigan, when Rodriguez could not and did not. That's what you get when you hire a Michigan Man.

Then he went to work. Despite the uncertainty that comes with a coaching tradition, he managed to salvage Michigan's 2011 recruiting class and lined up Matt Wile, an incoming kicker, who is most certainly needed as Michigan's kicking game in 2010 was atrocious. Probably Hoke's biggest and best move as Michigan's new head coach was hiring Greg Mattison as the defensive coordinator. Mattison had previously coached Michigan's defense from 1995-1996 and was defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens when Hoke called. Michigan's defense was perhaps its worst ever during Rodriguez's tenure, and Hoke's hiring of Mattison seemed to put a lot of uneasy fans at ease, and some are starting to give him a little credit.

Hoke continued to do well in recruiting and brought back the focus to the Midwestern states of Michigan and Ohio, each ripe with talent and considered pipeline states for U-M. In bringing back that focus, Hoke and his recruiting staff have landed several big-time commitments for the classes of 2012 and 2013, and has even managed to steal some recruits away from Michigan State's Mark Dantonio (who dominated the state of Michigan during the Rodriguez years) and Ohio State (whose coach, Jim Tressel, recently resigned because of NCAA rule violations). Among those noteworthy commits from the state of Michigan were defensive end Mario Ojemudia and tight end Devin Funchess, both from Farmington Hills Harrison, which is believed to be a "Spartan stronghold." Hoke's staff also landed James Ross from Orchard Lake St. Mary's Preparatory, another target of Dantonio's recruiting staff and, with his commitment to U-M, was another disappointment for Michigan State fans.

On the field, Michigan's 2011 spring game left plenty to be desired. The offense wasn't nearly as explosive as it had been a year previously, and perhaps that's a good thing. Perhaps the offense had been destroying the defense last year not because the offense was good but because the defense was just that bad. Many suspect that Rodriguez focused exclusively on offense and left the defense to be merely the offense's "sparring partner." However, in spring 2011, Hoke and Mattison were hard at work bringing the defense back to Michigan's standards (i.e. tough as a brick wall), and for the most part the defense dominated. It only gave up one really big play, when running back Mike Cox burst past the D-line and ran for a touchdown. These are all players from Rodriguez's time, and the difference in terms of success will likely be how well Hoke and his staff are able to coach the players, since he did not recruit them. We can never really know if the defense has substantially improved until the Wolverines begin their season in the fall.

Michigan certainly looks poised to do well. Its chief rival, Ohio State, will have to deal with the burden of NCAA sanctions for the mistakes of Jim Tressel, Terrelle Pryor, and a host of other Buckeyes. At least for 2012, Michigan State's recruiting has fallen behind Michigan's. All the signs are there for a Michigan football revival, which is exactly what the program needs. The years of losses under Rodriguez may have been well received by Michigan's rivals, but to the Wolverine faithful such a breakdown was unbearable. However, with Michigan going back to its roots, things are starting to look, sound, and feel like Michigan again, and that could mean great success in the making. Brian Christopherson, a writer for the Nebraska Cornhuskers, believes that Michigan's difficulties reflect in many ways those had by Nebraska in 2007, and since Nebraska pulled out of it, Michigan will too. "Such pitfalls are normally short-lived for the elite programs, especially if you find the right guy with the right vision," said Chistopherson. "Nebraska has cleaned off the muck of 2007 since Bo Pelini's arrival. And don't expect the Wolverines to be stuck in the middling pack long, either."

Because Rich Rodriguez ran the spread offense so extensively, there might be a fear in the Michigan fanbase that Denard Robinson, recruited by Rodriguez out of Florida and seemingly molded to fit the spread, might not fit with the pro-style offense that Hoke's offensive coordinator, Al Borges, is planning to coach. Robinson excited the Michigan fanbase because of his amazing abilities to run, as evidenced by the 2010 games against Connecticut and Notre Dame, where his speed was seemingly impossible to defend. (By the time Michigan reached the Big Ten conference part of their schedule, Robinson's running became less and less effective.) Such a use of his talent (i.e. a quarterback who runs) fits well in the spread because he is considered a dual-threat quarterback, and with so many options available the opposing defense cannot possibly cover all of it. However, Michigan's pro-style offense was effective with Anthony Thomas, Tom Brady, Chad Henne, and Mike Hart during their days on the team, and it stands to reason that it could be effective here too. After all, Robinson is not completely foreign to this type of offense; he did run some of it in high school.

Borges has said that Robinson's place in the offense will not be a square peg in a round hole. Despite saying that Robinson will move to under center (he spent most of his time in the shotgun for the spread), Borges also said that the offense will be fitted to Robinson's ability, under center or in the shotgun, and his running ability will still be utilized. "We're still going to have that stuff," Borges told reporters after the spring game. "I've been saying that all along. I think everybody when I came here was under the impression that we were going to line up under center for every play, but I haven't done that in years. And we will continue to keep and do some of the things that [Robinson] is good at, just adding our power game to it."

The main focus on Robinson: adding structure. The pro-style offense should bring enough of that, and should Robinson develop substantially as a passer, he will have more to rely on than his running, which also should mean that he'll be at less risk for injury. For right now, Borges and his offensive staff are assessing and re-assessing. They understand that they have to do it right in this first year, but they're still confident that Robinson is a talented enough quarterback to be successful and effective. All he needs to do is develop that ability. "Once he gets it down where he's comfortable, I think you'll see a pretty good quarterback," Borges added. "And we'll make it work for him. It's not going to be the stuff we like; it's going to be the stuff he can do."

Robinson himself isn't opposed to less injury or a heavier passing game. "I like throwing touchdowns, I'm not going to lie to you," he said. "I think I like throwing touchdowns more than me scoring." Of all the Michigan players, Robinson has been the most electrifying factor in the offense. He was a front-runner for the Heisman early on in 2010 and put up 329.9 yards per game of total offense. Now his focus will be shifted to passing more than running, but running will still be used, which could make for an interesting (if not exciting) season.

2010 was supposed to be the year that everything turned around. It was supposed to be the year that Rodriguez's system, with the players he recruited, was fully in place and the Big Ten would suffer the consequences of tangling with an explosive offense. Instead, Rodriguez and Michigan went a measly 7-5 that year, with humiliating losses to both rivals, and an utter blowout by Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl, after the Wolverines took a month to prepare. Rodriguez supporters argued and continue to argue that the man was never given enough of a chance, but to the rest of the Michigan faithful, three years was enough. No improvement before the bowl game alone was unacceptable.

There's a lot of the same skepticism and dread when it comes to Hoke, who does not have the same successful pedigree that Rodriguez did. Hoke's actions, however, have been the difference and may continue to be the difference. All he has to do now is prove himself on the field. He has won over several Michigan fans, called the alumni back home, and convinced high school kids to go to Michigan. It's practically impossible to say that Brady Hoke has not met the expectations that any Michigan fan could have. Rodriguez did not meet those expectations, and those who supported him often found themselves alone and against the masses, with little to use as ammunition other than "wait, it'll get better." The effect of Brady Hoke is already so much more tangible.

The comeback that Michigan should have had in 2010 may very well come this year. It's starting to look that way. At the very least, Hoke should have a decent year, and 2012 will be the one (since his recruits on defense will be coming in) that sees a huge, legitimate effect. He turned around San Diego State in two years. He already has the talent at Michigan, and throes of defensive players coming in next year, so perhaps it's time to get excited now.

Hoke has clocks in the locker room counting down to the games against Michigan State and Ohio State. The players will be watching them every day. Maybe we should too.