The Fall of Sparta

(Note: I originally had this posted as an op-ed on the blog, Maize n' Brew, but the editor deemed it too controversial. To spare him any more headaches, and because this blog is independent, I've posted it here.)

A few days ago, on Friday, October 19, the day before the Michigan vs. Michigan State game, Chris Vannini of the Spartan blog "The Only Colors" wrote a highly-rec'd op-ed about his feelings concerning the outlook of the Michigan State program, ironically titling it "Hail to the Victors."

In it Vannini describes the personal journey of how he came to be a Michigan State fan. Like many children of football families in the suburbs of Detroit, where Michigan almost unilaterally holds dominion on local college football interest, much in the same way Red Wings dominate hockey and Tigers dominate baseball, he grew up rooting for the Maize and Blue. While in high school, he then made it his "No. 1 goal" to get into Michigan.

Unfortunately, like many who apply to Michigan, for whatever reason he received a deferring letter. He ended up picking Michigan State and subsequently writes a blog about Spartan football and how much he hates the Wolverines.

I know a similar story where a friend of mine named Jon had similar aspirations in high school, and in senior year of English class he read to us his application essay for Michigan, with the topic "Who do you most admire?" The person he most admired was his brother, a Michigan alumnus, and how he was a "Michigan Man."

It was shameless pandering, and it didn't work. Though rejected from Michigan, he received a football scholarship to Michigan State and played linebacker for four years under Mark Dantonio. Thanks to Dantonio's diplomatic Buckeye tutelage, Jon now claims to have been a "Spartan since birth," and when Michigan State defeated Michigan in 2010, securing their third consecutive win for the first time since 1967, he sent me a picture on Facebook with him and the Paul Bunyan Trophy.

"Three years in a row," the caption read. "I love beating these guys!"

It was probably at that moment when I lost a great deal of respect for Michigan State and for my friend. Because he came from a place where, like Vannini, his primary aspiration was getting into Michigan, and then to act as if he'd always been a Spartan, from then on I have firmly and unequivocally hated Michigan State.

I still respect people who grew up MSU fans, because they're being true to who they are. But to have all these deep allegiances to Michigan, go to MSU, and then start spewing hate about the team you used to root for as a child, that's not exactly classy.

(It should be noted, however, that Chris Vannini's willingness to admit his past with Michigan openly and honestly is admirable. Most Michigan State fans of that origin choose to deny it or keep it to themselves.)

Look, I get it. It must be really, really tough to be a Spartan. It must really suck to walk into biology class at MSU and see a fellow student wearing a Block-M sweatshirt. It must doubly suck to be told from a CMU grad that your MSU degree is meaningless. Even though Michigan State accepts more than four times as many applicants as does Michigan, and ten times as many from in-state, it's still not a bad school. It's not a community college.

It must also suck how Michigan gets all the national attention, and how every year a Wolverine wins the September Heisman. Except for this year, when Le'Veon Bell won it, and Michigan State was almost universally picked to compete again for the Big Ten championship--well, at least by everyone working at the Big Ten Network.

Yes, Michigan gets unfair attention when haven't necessarily deserved it, but so does Texas, Ohio State, and Notre Dame. They get that attention because of decades of success. A few years of struggling teams is not going to make them irrelevant overnight. No, you need decades of mediocrity to do that.

Even the most die-hard Spartan will tell you that John L. Smith created a losing culture in East Lansing. When Mark Dantonio came in and lost to Lloyd Carr in 2007, everyone thought it would be more of the same.

What Dantonio did to Michigan State's program is significant. He capitalized when Michigan was down, beating a weary Wolverine team in 2008, and squeaking out another win in 2009, which solidified him as Michigan State's coach of the future.

He also took advantage of the gaps in in-state recruiting that Rich Rodriguez left open for two years, who instead preferred to recruit nationally until pressured by program alums to scout talent closer to home. Those recruiting classes of 2007, 2008, and 2009 helped Dantonio to back-to-back 11-win seasons.

Then he got what every coach needs: a great quarterback. Among those crucial recruits was Kirk Cousins, who became Michigan State's winningest quarterback and is arguably its best quarterback of all time statistically. Likeable and well-spoken, intelligent and determined, Cousins became an icon for how great a Spartan could be. For the first time in a long time, there were a few Michigan fans who were jealous.

Cousins may be the classiest thing to ever come out of East Lansing, despite his 2011 post-game interview, where his celebratory remarks were strikingly similar to Mike Hart's in 2007. Michigan State loves them that trash talk, yo.

Since Cousins' departure, the Spartans obviously haven't been the same. We can now see what an impact Cousins made on his team, despite being a lowly 2-star coming out of high school (he was clearly underrated). Cousins' heir, Andrew Maxwell, has shown neither the poise nor the ability to rally his team the way his predecessor did.

Michigan State fans cite three reasons for the loss to Michigan: the offensive coordinator, Dan Roushar, the kicker, Dan Conroy, and the refs. However, all three of these are false.

While there may have been a few calls or non-calls that the referees made that were favorable to Michigan, and I see how Spartan fans would be upset with that, there were just as many calls that favored Michigan State. The most egregious example is when Le'Veon Bell fumbled and Michigan recovered it, but the officials ruled Bell down (when even the commentators saw it was an obvious fumble) and it wasn't even challenged.

Conroy's missed field goal in the first quarter did not decide the game. No field goal in the first quarter does. It was Brendan Gibbons' field goal at the end of the game that decided it.

Finally, Dan Roushar. The reason why Michigan State lost this game was not because of him; they lost because of Andrew Maxwell. It doesn't matter how good your offensive coordinator is when your quarterback is overthrowing wide-open receivers. There were several opportunities where Aaron Burbridge and Keith Mumphrey got separation from the Michigan cornerbacks but Maxwell was nowhere near on target.

The difference between Kirk Cousins and Andrew Maxwell should now be painfully apparent to Michigan State fans, despite many of them claiming that not only would Maxwell be as good as Cousins, he'd be better. Cousins played like a star quarterback. He led the team and rallied them when they needed it. Maxwell has played like he always has: like a back-up quarterback. He keeps the offense from completely imploding but makes no strides to take control of the game.

If Maxwell is the first reason why Michigan State lost, Michigan's defense is almost certainly the second. Michigan State fans refuse to acknowledge this.

"Honestly with any other offensive coordinator in division one, we are a better team," said one Michigan State fan. I can sympathize that Roushar's 2-and-10 pass on MSU's final drive that ended in a punt when Michigan had no timeouts was hardly the best call, and if one call did lose the game for Michigan State from their standpoint, that was probably it. However, it was Michigan's defense, not Michigan State's offensive coordinator, that was the prevailing force in why the Spartans lost on Saturday.

It was even more crushing because this, the Michigan game, was Michigan State's season. With two conference losses, one to Ohio State and one to Iowa, Spartans already knew that they weren't going to compete for the Big Ten title this year. Which SpartanDan pointed out after the loss to Iowa:

The division race is pretty much over for us.
Even if we win out, we'd need at least two (possibly three) losses from Iowa and another one from Michigan. And winning out doesn't look at all likely at this point. Missing out on a bowl entirely is a possibility now, though I still think we probably get the last two to avoid that.

Michigan State didn't really have anything left to play for except the bragging rights against Michigan, and now even those are gone. The Spartans are 4-4 and are staring down the possibility of not even going to a bowl game--although this is severely unlikely.

As a Michigan alumnus, I obviously took great pride in seeing Michigan State lose after the sense of false accomplishment that gave them a momentary sense of entitlement. For all their continuous talk of being the underdog, the Spartans seemed like they finally hit the big leagues: they stopped hoping to win and started expecting to win.

Those feelings have evaporated now.

The once-proud Spartan football team is now a shell of its former self, and unless Dantonio can find him a new Kirk Cousins, who in my opinion is the type of quarterback that just doesn't come around very often, it's going to be more rough seasons for the Green and White. And with recruiting going as it is... (sorry, I couldn't resist.)

And make no mistake: this game is important to us Michigan fans. Anyone who tells you that it's not is clearly pulling your leg. Is it as important to us as it is to Michigan State? Not really. We don't obsess about it, but we do revel in it.

See you guys next year.

Michigan to play Virginia Tech in Sugar Bowl

The Wolverines' hopes of receiving a BCS bid came true on Sunday, as they were matched with Virginia Tech for the Allstate Sugar Bowl.

Of course, not everybody is happy about this. Fans of most college football teams are a little more upset at Virginia Tech for "back-dooring" their way into a BCS bowl. Other at-large choices for the Sugar Bowl included Boise State, Kansas State, and TCU. They were passed up, however, for Virginia Tech; some believe because Virginia Tech is a "name" program.

"In a football sense, it's tough to argue for the Hokies against some of the other teams in the at-large pool, especially after the 28-point loss to Clemson Saturday night," wrote a Virginia Tech blog. "Fortunately for Tech, bowl games are rarely about football. The only bowl game that matters, truly matters, is the national championship game. Every other game is about selling tickets, filling hotel rooms and drawing TV ratings. These are glorified exhibitions. Virginia Tech has a history with the Sugar Bowl that proves they will do exactly that."

MGoBlog's Brian doesn't see too much peril from Virginia Tech in the match-up, though the Wolverines are 2.5 point underdogs. "The Hokies haven't lost to anyone other than Clemson (in dual blowouts) but also haven't played anyone else," wrote Brian. "They played no BCS teams in the non-conference and their ACC schedule contains no opponent with more than eight wins." The Hokies are 11-2.

And predictably, Michigan State fans are unhappy. The general consensus around the Spartan faithful is that Michigan State deserves to go to a BCS bowl because it beat Michigan and played in the inaugural Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin. The Spartans lost that game but still feel that they are more deserving than Michigan, and it's not fair that they don't get to go when Michigan does.

Forget the fact that Michigan beat Notre Dame and Nebraska, two teams that handily trounced the Spartans. Michigan State primarily argues that, in its head-to-head match-up with Michigan, the Spartans won. Thus, they claim, they should go to a BCS bowl.

"Michigan sat at home tonight on the couch and watched us," Spartan quarterback Kirk Cousins, normally a classy guy and one who isn't fond of complaining, reportedly said after Michigan State lost to Wisconsin, knowing that his team would probably not go to a BCS bowl. "I don't see how you get punished for playing and someone else gets to sit on the couch and get what they want. If this is the way the system is, I guess it's a broken system."

These types of statements are par for the course in college football, especially from teams who don't get what they want. Those who do are often quietly content. Chris Petersen voiced his complaints when Boise State, who is not in an AQ conference, did not receive a BCS bowl bid despite an 11-1 regular season record.

"I'm really tired of the BCS, even the name," Petersen recently said at a press conference. "I think everybody is just tired of the BCS. Everybody's frustrated. I don't think anyone is happy anywhere…The whole thing needs to be changed, there's no question about it…Nobody likes it, nobody understands it, everybody thinks it needs to be changed, so hopefully it will be."

Michigan's Sugar Bowl opponent, Virginia Tech, caught a lot of flak because the BCS picked them over someone else (Kansas State, TCU, Boise State). Yet the arguments for Virginia Tech are plausible enough. The Hokies have a solid fan base and a good following, and they usually travel very well. They also have made several trips to the Sugar Bowl, a history that no doubt played a factor in their selection.

It should be noted that the BCS is often misinterpreted as a playoff, where a team's merit determines their status. In reality, it is more about creating exciting match-ups. Michigan and Virginia Tech are two historical programs who would generate a lot of interest.

That isn't to say that Michigan or Virginia Tech or anyone should or does play in a BCS bowl by name brand alone. You have to qualify as an at-large team. In order to Michigan to be eligible for the Sugar Bowl (or any BCS bowl), it had to crack the Top 14. That usually happens when teams lose their championship games. Georgia, for instance, lost to LSU in the SEC championship, dropped in the rankings, and is set to play Michigan State in the Outback Bowl in the battle of the runner-ups.

However, Michigan State's main gripe against Michigan playing in the Sugar Bowl is less a statement about the BCS (as they would have you believe) and is more about bitterness towards their rival, which is to be expected. If Purdue was 10-2 and had a BCS bowl bid, Michigan State fans would not be anywhere near as bitter. It is only because Michigan got to the Sugar Bowl that they are now complaining—even when it was predicted to happen weeks ago. Spartans typically, and bizarrely, judge their success almost entirely on what Michigan does—or, in this case, where Michigan goes. They don't (and perhaps they can't) see themselves as a good team in their own right. They went to the Big Ten championship. Michigan did not. Still, that is not enough.

Michigan's players Ryan Van Bergen and Kevin Koger were asked what they thought about Kirk Cousins's comments about Michigan not being worthy to play in a BCS bowl. "If he wants to be able to sit on the couch and watch us play in the Big Ten championship game, then he can do that," Van Bergen said. "We would have loved to trade places and have that chance and have that opportunity. All complaints aside, they had an opportunity to the Rose Bowl sitting right in front of them to grab, and they didn't seize the opportunity. I think they'll do well in the Outback Bowl, but best of luck, best wishes—we're going to the Sugar Bowl, and we're excited about it."

"We did get to recover a little bit, but I'd rather play in the Big Ten championship game," Kevin Koger added. "I mean, the inaugural Big Ten championship—that says a lot of about the teams that played in it. We'd be happy to trade places, but it is what it is."

The game is set for January 3, 2012, at 8:30 p.m.

It will be the first time Michigan has ever played Virginia Tech.

The Way Forward

It's been a tough couple of weeks. You probably know by now that Brady Hoke's first career loss as Michigan's head coach and Michigan's first loss of 2011 came at the hands of in-state rival, Michigan State.

There was pretty much sloppy play on both sides, but Michigan's play was sloppier. Michigan State committed so many penalties that it accumulated to over 100 yards, but the Wolverines failed to capitalize. That was the story of the game: Michigan failing to capitalize. 

To say that Michigan State played dirty would be a gross understatement. By now you shouldn't be surprised by how they play against Michigan. Some people were; I wasn't. The proof is here.

Of course, one of the main stories about the game was Hoke and Borges's decision to call a play-action pass on fourth and very short, when the obvious call was simply to take a chance and run it. Nobody was happy about that. Personally, I think people are upset only because it failed. Yes, it was a bad call, but you wouldn't be saying it was a bad call if it had worked. Instead, quarterback Denard Robinson got sacked, and Michigan's coaches looked pretty stupid.

There's not much to discuss when it comes to the game against Michigan State. It was a loss and that hurts. To me, one of the worst things about it was Michigan's "special" uniforms—which I found to be awful. I usually tease my friends from Michigan State about the Spartans' inability to keep a consistent uniform and thereby start some kind of tradition, but I could not really say that today because Michigan was doing it too. 

Most Michigan fans were peeved with Hoke about the play call, while I was peeved about the uniforms. You don't mess with Michigan's uniform. This time I learned that it was "a surprise" that was waiting for the players instead of a senior request. Either way, it was a bad decision. Rich Rodriguez may have done a lot of things wrong at Michigan, but at least he was smart enough to never change the uniform. I sincerely hope that the game against Michigan State was the last time—and I mean it, the last time—that we ever see a spontaneous change or a change of any kind to the uniform.

Now, we can focus on the way forward. I had said before the season that Michigan State was not a team to underestimate, and though I thought that Brady Hoke understood the rivalry enough to prepare the players for it, I was clearly wrong. I also said that a loss against Michigan State would not doom Hoke. To a large extent, that remains true. It's still Hoke's first year, and we can't expect a perfect season.

That said, I would have much rather had a loss to Northwestern than Michigan State. In the article that described the expectations for Brady Hoke's 2011 debut, I hadn't asked for much: primarily, an 8-4 season with wins over the rivals, but a loss to Notre Dame was excusable. The loss to the Spartans puts a particularly bad taste in your mouth if you're a Michigan fan, and it's almost good to know that Hoke himself is still taking the loss pretty hard. What the loss to Michigan State does is turn up the pressure for him to beat Ohio State.

It's becoming increasingly clear that Michigan will not likely be competing for the Big Ten championship this year. You don't get any closer to the title game by losing to a team that's in your division. Hoke's focus should be almost solely on preparing for Ohio State, because a loss to that team will be damning. Yes, he still thinks there's a chance Michigan can surely compete for the Big Ten, and depending on the rest of Michigan State's season, he may turn out to be right. But he took a step back from that goal instead of a step forward. His goal should now be to beat Ohio State.

In so many ways, Hoke's Wolverines have defied expectations. So far, they have shown good improvement on defense, they have started well at 6-1, and they made athletic director Dave Brandon happy by winning the much-hyped first night game against Notre Dame. Hoke went on to defeat his old team, and then Michigan started their Big Ten schedule well. His team is already bowl-eligible, and they're very close to having a winning season, and after Rich Rodriguez, 8-4 sounds pretty good.

The only thing that will make this season a true disappointment is a loss to Ohio State. Michigan has shown that they have become a good (but not great) team in the Big Ten. I said before that they are not a top ten team yet. A Big Ten title would be great, but I said many times that I don't believe it's necessary for Hoke's first season. This being a coaching transition, it surely shouldn't be expected. What should be expected, especially now, with Michigan losing to a hated rival once already, is a victory over Ohio State. The Buckeyes are still struggling to have a good season, and signs indicate that they won't maintain the winning streak against Michigan. Both Hoke and his team need to solidify that. It must be their focus.

Michigan goes on to play Purdue for homecoming. Despite all the articles that said that Michigan's fork in the road was the Michigan State game, I think that this one is pretty damn important. Yes, the deciding factor was usually the Michigan State game, but that's only because it was when things started to go bad. If the Wolverines can bounce back, and they should, then it'll show that this is a different team. Michigan has had a bye week to get healthy for the Boilermakers, and they should be ready. A loss will not only bring disappointment, it will start to feel like the team hasn't improved.

To be different from Rodriguez, Hoke's team will need to improve week to week. Despite the better overall season records, the Wolverines of 2009 and 2010 would actually get worse as the season went on. That needs to change. Don't get me wrong: I still believe in Hoke. I'm just saying that he now has the chance to show that he's different from Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez's teams never seemed to fully recover from their losses against Michigan State. How Hoke's teams respond will reveal a lot about who they are.

The pressure is way up. How Hoke's first season is remembered will come down, almost unilaterally, to whether or not the team beats Ohio State. Michigan fans will be able to remember the Wolverines' thrilling win over Notre Dame because it continued for the rest of the season—despite a hiccup or two. But a loss against the Buckeyes will bring back all those old feelings—the bad ones.

Bo Schemebechler knew that the game against Ohio State was crucial. All signs indicate that Hoke knows that too. Because of its place on the schedule, it has the ability to shed a good light on a rough season, or solidify that the season was rough. The Wolverines missed an opportunity to snap a losing streak against a rival.

They have one more chance to do it this year—against the Buckeyes.

It's Going to Come Down to the Rivals

In his first year as Michigan's head coach, Brady Hoke has surprised a lot of people. He arrived in Ann Arbor on January 11, more than nine months ago, to a congregation of supporters and skeptics. Most of the latter weren't impressed with him because of his then-overall record (47-50) and the fact that he's 52. Some felt he was a cop-out for bigger name choices like Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles, both of which weren't interested in the Michigan job. Yet Brady Hoke wasn't the bumbling idiot many unfairly expected him to be. There were considerably fewer critics after Hoke gave his first press conference. He showed skeptics exactly how much he cared about Michigan, what it meant to him, what was important, and what he was going to do.

It was like he had said what everybody was thinking. Finally there was someone who cared—and cared deeply—about beating Ohio State. It was a rivalry that was personal to him. Finally there was someone who understood that you have to compete for the recruits in the state of Michigan and in the Midwest, particularly Ohio, which is a factory for blue chip recruits. And most importantly, there was finally someone who understood Michigan's tradition and how this job wasn't like any other job and how this is Michigan for God sakes.

The next few months were unexpectedly encouraging. Hoke had succeeded against one of the program's biggest recent challenges—finding a top-notch defensive coordinator—by hiring Greg Mattison away from the Baltimore Ravens. Then, with Mattison in tow, Hoke and his staff put together one of the best recruiting classes for 2012. They had locked down nine of the top ten prospects in the state of Michigan, and had also earned commitments from defensive end Mario Ojemudia and tight end Devin Funchess, both of whom had been previously considered locks for Michigan State. Spartans everywhere panicked as they watched the best players pick Michigan over their program. For a Michigan fan, and for anyone who had watched MSU coach Mark Dantonio continually beat out Rich Rodriguez for the best in-state players, it was a refreshing change of pace to see things going back to the way they were supposed to be.

Yet there were still lingering questions about the productivity Michigan would have on the field for the 2011 season. Would Denard Robinson still be utilized effectively? How will the defense grow and develop under defensive gurus Hoke and Mattison, and how quickly? Will there be any progress in the kicking game? What about an efficient running back to help keep the pressure and the injuries off of Denard?

When the 2011 season approached, a lot of Michigan fans were anxious and nervous, the sort of excitement that is rarely positive. Brady Hoke had done things so well, had gotten so much good press, so many great recruits, that now we'd see just how rough things were. These fears, even though they still remain somewhat, were largely unsubstantiated. Michigan came out against Western Michigan and, although it got off to a rocky start, dominated the Broncos defensively and scored two defensive touchdowns. Hoke and Mattison had apparently done a remarkable job improving the defense, and they'd done it quickly. Then against Notre Dame, Michigan found a way to win with an explosive offense and a defense, while not excellent nor horrible, made stops when it needed to. Michigan went on to win all of its first six games, the last of which was on the road against Northwestern. With the exception of a close victory over a formidable Notre Dame, for the rest of those games, Michigan did not escape by an eyelash because of horrible defense, as it so often had under Rodriguez. It won decisively.

Brady Hoke has surpassed expectations, so much so that he's even started to win over his most hateful critics. Back in July, I had put together a quick run-down of the expectations that Hoke was facing for the then-upcoming 2011 season. The list included expectations of differing priority: for instance, winning the Big Ten fell at medium because it's Brady Hoke first year, but notching at least 8 wins was considered a high priority. 

So far, Hoke has met all of those expectations except the two with the highest priority: snapping the losing streaks against Michigan State and Ohio State. He and his team will have the chance to snap the losses in the Michigan State rivalry this weekend.

It's no secret that beating your rivals goes a long way to making you look good as a coaching hire, and it obviously makes the alumni, donors, players, and fans very happy. However, it's almost an unfair reality that a large part of Hoke's first season at Michigan will be remembered in how he won or lost against the school's two most hated rivals. This is pretty much the nature of the beast. Both Charles Woodson and Desmond Howard cinched Heisman candidacies with how they played (and won) over Ohio State—and, remembering Woodson's one-handed interception, Michigan State.

If Michigan can snap the losing streaks against its rivals, imagine how this season will be remembered. It was the season that was not only Brady Hoke's first year, but it was the one with Michigan Stadium's first night game and a thrilling victory over Notre Dame. It was the season that Michigan started its road back to dominance and doing things the right way, the Michigan way.

I had said so long ago that all I wanted out of this season was an 8-4 record with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State. When Michigan beat Notre Dame, a game I expected us to lose, I suddenly thought that Michigan could legitimately go 9-3. When they beat San Diego State, I thought 9-3 was even more attainable. When they beat Northwestern after starting undefeated, I thought this team might actually go 10-2. Such a season would no doubt please Michigan fans everywhere, and for Brady Hoke to have a 10-2 season would definitely defy all my expectations. But here's the problem: how his season is viewed is ultimately going to come down to the rivalry games. A 10-2 season won't mean much if those two losses come to MSU and OSU. Denard's fantastic play in the Notre Dame game won't be as remembered or as cherished because it didn't continue against the Spartans or the Buckeyes. This is why 2010 and 2009 are remembered unpleasantly. Despite the amazing starts and victories over Notre Dame, the seasons themselves weren't memorable.

The game against Michigan State this weekend is important for many reasons, but perhaps the most important reason is that it is a chance for Brady Hoke to show, on the field, how his leadership will be different than Rodriguez's, who never seemed to take either game completely seriously. Hoke has already defeated the Spartans in the recruiting field, but on the football field it would be considerably more tangible. 

There's also the fact that Hoke is being asked to snap a losing streak rather than continue a winning one. The Spartans have won the last three years in a row, and they're more than happy to rub their victory in Michigan fans' faces. Some people outside of Michigan don't really get what's the big deal about the rivalry with Michigan State, but MGoBlog's Misopogon sums it up nicely:

Out-of-staters are bewildered that so much attention is paid to a mid-season, in-state rivalry that stands at 67-31-5. Really it's not even a full-state rivalry, as the west is pretty much blue or Notre Dame. Those who grew up in Ann Arbor don't see what the big deal is either. It's mostly about Detroit, where Michigan fans are seldom more than 10 feet from a Spartan, where classes of 10-year-olds are 70% Michigan fans and only 10% of those will get in.

Despite losing to a Notre Dame team that Michigan defeated, and having a poor showing against a shorthanded Ohio State, the Spartans are confident that not only will they beat Michigan but that they'll beat Michigan by two scores—at least. Obviously, this could be nothing more than simple pre-game trash talk, which is expected of the rivals. Michigan State's offensive line is arguably its biggest question mark. Kirk Cousins is still one of the Big Ten's best quarterbacks, but only when he has protection and only when the offense has already established the run. Michigan's game at Michigan State will not be impossible to win, and it will likely be very close. Lloyd Carr frequently said that the game against Michigan State is "the most physical" game Michigan plays all season. "It's a dog-fight," Brady Hoke recently added. That's likely because the players on this team know each other, and recently also because of Mark Dantonio's unwavering hatred for Michigan.

It's another challenge that Brady Hoke faces in proving himself to the Michigan faithful. One would think that since Hoke has won so many challenges already and has defied so many expectations, he could maybe afford to lose to Michigan State. I wish I could say yes, but given the circumstances of the past years under Rodriguez, and how the game against Michigan State was so often the turning point for the season (in Rodriguez's case, usually for the worst), it's just not possible. Brady Hoke and Michigan need to win this game.

That doesn't mean that a loss would universally and unequivocally doom Hoke. He'll have another chance on the last Saturday in November to redeem himself. But a victory this Saturday would go a long way to re-establishing Michigan's dominance in the state. Hoke's already taken the fight to the recruiting trail. 

He just needs to take it to the field.

Five Teams that Michigan Should Not Underestimate

It's only a few weeks away now from the start of the 2011 season, so needless to say the anticipation is building. While what follows isn't exactly season predictions, and some of you are expecting those at this point, here's a little preview at some of Michigan's upcoming opponents.

These are teams that Michigan is generally expected to beat in just about everyone's predictions, but who we think will give the Wolverines more of a fight than they expect. Sure, Michigan will probably expect tough games against Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa, and even Notre Dame—depending on who you ask—and there are somewhat "easy" teams like Eastern Michigan that shouldn't give the Wolverines much of a problem.

However, here are five teams that sort of fall right in the middle. Michigan possibly could come into these battles overconfident, and that's what we're hoping to prevent. These guys could surprise Michigan with a loss.

1. Michigan State

Despite the resurgence of Michigan in the battle for in-state recruiting, followed by much of the Spartan faithful going into panic mode, Michigan State still has a legitimate shot at the Legends Division and maybe even the Big Ten title. I think one of the biggest mistakes Michigan has made over the past three years, certainly in 2009 and 2010, was to enter the Michigan State game underestimating the Spartans. Some suggest that had more to do with the direction under Rich Rodriguez, but the fact remains that the Spartans appeared far more motivated in those contests. Furthermore, I said previously that Michigan State has consistently played its best game of the season against Michigan.

Part of me thinks that Michigan State's journey to an 11-1 regular season in 2010 was due mostly to an easy schedule and the rest came from a fair amount of luck. Had the Spartans been challenged by Ohio State, they could have lost their share of the Big Ten title, something which they desperately cling to today. Yet Michigan State had a convincing win against Wisconsin, who must have had an off day because they were clearly the better team in every other contest. Then Michigan State's luck ran out when they lost in a 49-7 shellacking by Alabama. The defeat put such a sour taste in the mouths of MSU fans that it made some of them wonder if the Spartans weren't as good as they all had thought.

2011 could go either way for them. Some are predicting a continuation of what had happened in 2010, and MSU could be in line for another 11-win season. Others say that Michigan State has peaked and will return to the middle of the Big Ten pack. That might be true in the coming years, but for 2011, the Spartans return most of their weapons of offense. Kirk Cousins is one of the best passers in the Big Ten. Michigan State also has Edwin Baker at running back and B.J. Cunningham at wide receiver, and both are threatening at how much they can make big plays. Their kicking game is excellent. On defense, the Spartans lose middle linebacker Greg Jones, who some refer to as "the heart and soul" of that unit. Jones certainly made a difference in any games he played for the Spartans, and he won't be easy to replace. There are plenty of good players in the secondary, but the unit won't be the same. Expect the Spartans to give Michigan a really good showing and play their hearts out.

Any Michigan fan knows that Michigan State's winning for the past three years has been severely unsettling, and most are predicting a victory for the Wolverines, but just because Brady Hoke is the new coach, don't expect this win to be a lock. The Spartans fight tooth and nail over this game, and they have plenty of talented players. The Wolverines should not underestimate them.

2. Western Michigan

It's Brady Hoke's first game as Michigan head coach. You'd think that the Wolverines could come into this game rabid and looking for blood because they have something to prove—but that's what I had thought would happen in 2010. Instead, the Wolverines struggled against any teams that were Top 25 in the Big Ten, we lost because of a mysteriously bad defense, and Rodriguez was fired. Hoke is far more passionate about Michigan football than Rodriguez ever was (or possibly ever could be), and so by that definition the Michigan team he will field this year will be a winner.

But even Lloyd Carr lost games he shouldn't have (see: Appalachian State). Michigan has a tendency to get caught up in the hype because they are so used to success they think it is right around the corner. The problem Michigan has faced for the past three years under Rodriguez was that there essentially two stories: there was the "should" games, and then there was what actually happened. In 2010, Rodriguez should have snapped both winning streaks against Michigan State and Ohio State. He should have won the Big Ten. Denard should have won the Heisman. They should have, but they didn't.

Enter Western Michigan. Brady Hoke should win this game simply because it's his first, it's at home, and it's what people are looking for as an indication that Michigan made the right hire and Hoke is getting the Wolverines back on track. Yes, should. But people said the same thing about Rich Rodriguez.

So, what's the lesson? Take nothing for granted.

The Broncos went 6-6 last year, and according to The Wolverine's 2011 Michigan Football Preview, their returning defensive line "must find a way to get to the quarterback more." WMU quarterback Alex Carder has his favorite targets return as well, but there's also the emergence of "a solid running game." There are little to no indications that the Broncos, despite being a mid-level MAC team, are a push over.

Personally, I hate it when Michigan plays MAC teams. There's so much to lose and so little to win. It rarely provides a good game, so victories don't mean much, but losses are absolutely devastating. But that shouldn't happen. Nevertheless, as much as this is Brady Hoke's first game, and Michigan's season opener, it's still Western's first game of the season too. They'll want to win it as much as anyone, and they'll come in looking to do that. For Michigan not to show up to this game would be a colossal mistake.

3. San Diego State

Let me say this right now: don't be surprised or devastated or confused if San Diego State defeats Michigan. It's Brady Hoke's old team, the one he just built into a winner. It's more or less the same team that came within a heartbeat of defeating TCU. Instead, they tied for third in the Mountain West Conference and surprised everyone by beating Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. Looking back, no one should have been surprised. It's Brady Hoke.

What Michigan fans should see when we play San Diego State is essentially a future version of the Wolverines minus the five-star talent. It's both the product of Al Borges refining quarterback Ryan Lindley and of Brady Hoke's emphasis on toughness on defense. Yes, Brady Hoke is no longer the coach, but Hoke's defensive coordinator Rocky Long took over and leads a team that hasn't lost too many starters. Though Borges preferred to have a strong passing attack, the SDSU Aztecs have a surprisingly good ground game, and running back Ronnie Hillman was in Heisman talks for maybe a minute because he broke tons of conference records. Hillman was also named a Freshman All-American. So, look out for San Diego State's running game.

Michigan's game against the Aztecs will likely be very awkward and uncomfortable for both sides, though not surprisingly Hoke expects it to be a fun game. While there were seemingly no hard feelings or ill-will towards Hoke when he left for the Michigan job, the Aztecs would be lying if they said that they wouldn't be satisfied with a win. Frankly, I don't think anyone should be surprised if that happens. Hoke built the Aztecs into a solid, respectable team that knows how to win and can do it.

The biggest mistake Michigan might make (and which predicting fans have already made) is to consider this game already in the bag because Michigan is traditionally a better team. Yes, Michigan is better, and we should beat San Diego State, but the Aztecs have shown that a well-coached team can pretty much do anything. Had Hoke stayed at San Diego State, it's conceivable they'd not only have eventually won the conference but made a bid for bigger bowls, possibly even BCS ones.

Because it's practically the same unit, expect the same on-field production. The defense will still be Rocky Long's, and if San Diego State can keep what Borges installed, they'll be fine. This is definitely one team that Michigan should not overlook. A win (for U-M) would only mean that San Diego State has yet to acquire the same level of top talent that Michigan is accustomed to getting. A loss—again, don't be surprised—would only give more credit to Brady Hoke as a coach. What he did there is astounding.

4. Northwestern

If ever there was a "trap" game for the Wolverines in 2011, this would be it. Although Northwestern is typically called "the doormat of the Big Ten," Ryan Tice at The Wolverine considers quarterback Dan Persa to be the best quarterback in the conference. "If senior quarterback Dan Persa is able to recover fully from a ruptured Achilles' tendon that brought an early close to his magical 2010 campaign, Northwestern could be a contender for the Big Ten Legends' Division," Tice wrote in the 2011 Michigan Football Preview issue.

Persa accounted for 75% of Northwestern's total offense and completed approximately 74% of all his passes. Phil Steele's College Football Preview ranked him as the No. 14 quarterback in the nation, and there's even talk that he might surpass Stanford's Andrew Luck as a Heisman candidate. So, yeah, Northwestern's got something.

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald had a 9-win season with the Wildcats back in 2008 and some thought he should be a candidate for the Michigan job. However, Fitzgerald is going nowhere. He's at Northwestern to stay—probably because they're his alma mater or something—and he's determined to lead them to their first post-season bowl win since the late 1940s. Taking Persa, who was recruited as a two-star quarterback, to Heisman talks is astounding for any coach. Expect Fitzgerald to have a lot of success this year.

It's no wonder some people are considering Northwestern the dark horse winner of the Big Ten this year. (Most think the battle will be between Nebraska and Wisconsin.) The Wildcats have a killer passing game, and in 2010 that was Michigan's biggest weakness to defend. (We also had a big weakness at defending the run, but whatever.) It's plausible that Northwestern, despite going 6-6 in 2010, would have beat Michigan—especially, and perhaps solely, if Persa had been on the field.

Keep that in mind as the Wolverines go to Evanston this year. Hopefully our defense will be improved enough to stop Dan Persa's passing attack, but if all the analysts predicting big things for him are right, it won't be pretty.

5. Minnesota

Weirder things have happened. Like Brady Hoke, Minnesota's new coach Jerry Kill thrives when people tend to underestimate him. While I don't necessarily think that Kill is as good or effective a coach—he has a peculiar coaching style ("YOU SUCK! I do like you, though..."), and he prefers to find athletic quarterbacks who can "make up for my [Kill's] lack of coaching"—and as much as I dislike that philosophy, it would be wrong to say that Kill is bad at what he does. His supporters will tell you that he's won everywhere he's coached, and he'll tell you he won because he brings consistency from a loyal coaching staff. He's blunt and realistic, makes no promises to win right away, but that doesn't mean he's not going to win.

Because the Golden Gophers went 3-9 last year, everyone will be underestimating them. That's a mistake. Iowa knows too well what happens when you think beating Minnesota will be easy—as they painfully learned in 2010. No one was expecting Minnesota to upset Iowa (who defeated Michigan State, a co-champion of the Big Ten), but it just showed that in college football anything can happen.

Minnesota also isn't as inept as everyone believes them to be. If you follow any Minnesota football news or blogs, you'll see a very sober level of expectations but plenty of playmakers who can help the Golden Gophers win more games. Minnesota's quarterback MarQueis Gray is essentially their version of Denard Robinson, and some even consider him an NFL-caliber quarterback. Gray switched to receiver last year, but with the departure of senior quarterback Adam Weber, he's back under center. The offense is surprisingly underrated (losing seasons tend to do that) even though Minnesota has effective skill players with Da'Jon McKnight at wide receiver and Duane Bennett at running back. Both are standout players who could and probably will have a big impact on Minnesota's immediate future.

To say that Jerry Kill is trying to do at Minnesota what Brady Hoke is trying to do at Michigan would only be half true. Despite having won several National Championships half a century ago (something the Gophers love to showcase), the pressure to win immediately is no where near as high. Minnesota is not the national brand that Michigan is, nor does it have the national fanbase. But Minnesota could be on its way back up. I don't see it getting back to the level of BCS National Championships because it is locked in the same division as Michigan, and I think Minnesota will never be good enough to dominate them.

The rivalry was a big deal in years past, and Michigan and Minnesota's players lost sleep over who had the Little Brown Jug—but that was when Minnesota was racking up National Championships. Today, the intensity is kind of gone, but Hoke and Kill's battles could be the first in an era that brings it back.

Kill has a tendency to surprise those who underestimate him and beat them when they don't expect it. He'll do the same thing at Minnesota, because he's done it everywhere else. The Wolverines must be ready.