It's Going to Come Down to the Rivals

In his first year as Michigan's head coach, Brady Hoke has surprised a lot of people. He arrived in Ann Arbor on January 11, more than nine months ago, to a congregation of supporters and skeptics. Most of the latter weren't impressed with him because of his then-overall record (47-50) and the fact that he's 52. Some felt he was a cop-out for bigger name choices like Jim Harbaugh and Les Miles, both of which weren't interested in the Michigan job. Yet Brady Hoke wasn't the bumbling idiot many unfairly expected him to be. There were considerably fewer critics after Hoke gave his first press conference. He showed skeptics exactly how much he cared about Michigan, what it meant to him, what was important, and what he was going to do.

It was like he had said what everybody was thinking. Finally there was someone who cared—and cared deeply—about beating Ohio State. It was a rivalry that was personal to him. Finally there was someone who understood that you have to compete for the recruits in the state of Michigan and in the Midwest, particularly Ohio, which is a factory for blue chip recruits. And most importantly, there was finally someone who understood Michigan's tradition and how this job wasn't like any other job and how this is Michigan for God sakes.

The next few months were unexpectedly encouraging. Hoke had succeeded against one of the program's biggest recent challenges—finding a top-notch defensive coordinator—by hiring Greg Mattison away from the Baltimore Ravens. Then, with Mattison in tow, Hoke and his staff put together one of the best recruiting classes for 2012. They had locked down nine of the top ten prospects in the state of Michigan, and had also earned commitments from defensive end Mario Ojemudia and tight end Devin Funchess, both of whom had been previously considered locks for Michigan State. Spartans everywhere panicked as they watched the best players pick Michigan over their program. For a Michigan fan, and for anyone who had watched MSU coach Mark Dantonio continually beat out Rich Rodriguez for the best in-state players, it was a refreshing change of pace to see things going back to the way they were supposed to be.

Yet there were still lingering questions about the productivity Michigan would have on the field for the 2011 season. Would Denard Robinson still be utilized effectively? How will the defense grow and develop under defensive gurus Hoke and Mattison, and how quickly? Will there be any progress in the kicking game? What about an efficient running back to help keep the pressure and the injuries off of Denard?

When the 2011 season approached, a lot of Michigan fans were anxious and nervous, the sort of excitement that is rarely positive. Brady Hoke had done things so well, had gotten so much good press, so many great recruits, that now we'd see just how rough things were. These fears, even though they still remain somewhat, were largely unsubstantiated. Michigan came out against Western Michigan and, although it got off to a rocky start, dominated the Broncos defensively and scored two defensive touchdowns. Hoke and Mattison had apparently done a remarkable job improving the defense, and they'd done it quickly. Then against Notre Dame, Michigan found a way to win with an explosive offense and a defense, while not excellent nor horrible, made stops when it needed to. Michigan went on to win all of its first six games, the last of which was on the road against Northwestern. With the exception of a close victory over a formidable Notre Dame, for the rest of those games, Michigan did not escape by an eyelash because of horrible defense, as it so often had under Rodriguez. It won decisively.

Brady Hoke has surpassed expectations, so much so that he's even started to win over his most hateful critics. Back in July, I had put together a quick run-down of the expectations that Hoke was facing for the then-upcoming 2011 season. The list included expectations of differing priority: for instance, winning the Big Ten fell at medium because it's Brady Hoke first year, but notching at least 8 wins was considered a high priority. 

So far, Hoke has met all of those expectations except the two with the highest priority: snapping the losing streaks against Michigan State and Ohio State. He and his team will have the chance to snap the losses in the Michigan State rivalry this weekend.

It's no secret that beating your rivals goes a long way to making you look good as a coaching hire, and it obviously makes the alumni, donors, players, and fans very happy. However, it's almost an unfair reality that a large part of Hoke's first season at Michigan will be remembered in how he won or lost against the school's two most hated rivals. This is pretty much the nature of the beast. Both Charles Woodson and Desmond Howard cinched Heisman candidacies with how they played (and won) over Ohio State—and, remembering Woodson's one-handed interception, Michigan State.

If Michigan can snap the losing streaks against its rivals, imagine how this season will be remembered. It was the season that was not only Brady Hoke's first year, but it was the one with Michigan Stadium's first night game and a thrilling victory over Notre Dame. It was the season that Michigan started its road back to dominance and doing things the right way, the Michigan way.

I had said so long ago that all I wanted out of this season was an 8-4 record with wins over Michigan State and Ohio State. When Michigan beat Notre Dame, a game I expected us to lose, I suddenly thought that Michigan could legitimately go 9-3. When they beat San Diego State, I thought 9-3 was even more attainable. When they beat Northwestern after starting undefeated, I thought this team might actually go 10-2. Such a season would no doubt please Michigan fans everywhere, and for Brady Hoke to have a 10-2 season would definitely defy all my expectations. But here's the problem: how his season is viewed is ultimately going to come down to the rivalry games. A 10-2 season won't mean much if those two losses come to MSU and OSU. Denard's fantastic play in the Notre Dame game won't be as remembered or as cherished because it didn't continue against the Spartans or the Buckeyes. This is why 2010 and 2009 are remembered unpleasantly. Despite the amazing starts and victories over Notre Dame, the seasons themselves weren't memorable.

The game against Michigan State this weekend is important for many reasons, but perhaps the most important reason is that it is a chance for Brady Hoke to show, on the field, how his leadership will be different than Rodriguez's, who never seemed to take either game completely seriously. Hoke has already defeated the Spartans in the recruiting field, but on the football field it would be considerably more tangible. 

There's also the fact that Hoke is being asked to snap a losing streak rather than continue a winning one. The Spartans have won the last three years in a row, and they're more than happy to rub their victory in Michigan fans' faces. Some people outside of Michigan don't really get what's the big deal about the rivalry with Michigan State, but MGoBlog's Misopogon sums it up nicely:

Out-of-staters are bewildered that so much attention is paid to a mid-season, in-state rivalry that stands at 67-31-5. Really it's not even a full-state rivalry, as the west is pretty much blue or Notre Dame. Those who grew up in Ann Arbor don't see what the big deal is either. It's mostly about Detroit, where Michigan fans are seldom more than 10 feet from a Spartan, where classes of 10-year-olds are 70% Michigan fans and only 10% of those will get in.

Despite losing to a Notre Dame team that Michigan defeated, and having a poor showing against a shorthanded Ohio State, the Spartans are confident that not only will they beat Michigan but that they'll beat Michigan by two scores—at least. Obviously, this could be nothing more than simple pre-game trash talk, which is expected of the rivals. Michigan State's offensive line is arguably its biggest question mark. Kirk Cousins is still one of the Big Ten's best quarterbacks, but only when he has protection and only when the offense has already established the run. Michigan's game at Michigan State will not be impossible to win, and it will likely be very close. Lloyd Carr frequently said that the game against Michigan State is "the most physical" game Michigan plays all season. "It's a dog-fight," Brady Hoke recently added. That's likely because the players on this team know each other, and recently also because of Mark Dantonio's unwavering hatred for Michigan.

It's another challenge that Brady Hoke faces in proving himself to the Michigan faithful. One would think that since Hoke has won so many challenges already and has defied so many expectations, he could maybe afford to lose to Michigan State. I wish I could say yes, but given the circumstances of the past years under Rodriguez, and how the game against Michigan State was so often the turning point for the season (in Rodriguez's case, usually for the worst), it's just not possible. Brady Hoke and Michigan need to win this game.

That doesn't mean that a loss would universally and unequivocally doom Hoke. He'll have another chance on the last Saturday in November to redeem himself. But a victory this Saturday would go a long way to re-establishing Michigan's dominance in the state. Hoke's already taken the fight to the recruiting trail. 

He just needs to take it to the field.

The Wake-Up Call

2011 is becoming one of the most intriguing years in college football. 

Ohio State seems hell-bent on collapsing into dust. Michigan State lost to Notre Dame but is still confident that it doesn't mean much for the Spartans' upcoming bout with Michigan. Illinois, despite that its fans previously believing Ron Zook to be one of the most incompetent coaches in the Big Ten, is now looking like a viable contender for their division—with only Wisconsin standing in their way. (In the other conferences, all the usual players are making runs for their titles. The only real surprise has been Baylor.)

However, the most intriguing team of the year has to be the Michigan Wolverines. Last year they had one of the worst defenses of any BCS conference, they lost their games in the worst ways possible, and the athletic department made a coaching change. Usually, that spells trouble for the next couple years: coaching changes almost universally spell losses in the first season, and there's always player attrition. 

Instead, Brady Hoke has had very few players leave and has coached the team to a 6-0 record midway through the first season. There are even whispers that Michigan will be legitimate contenders for the Big Ten championship game (probably against Wisconsin), something which I didn't expect until Hoke's second year. All I wanted out of Hoke's first year was an 8-4 record and to snap the losing streaks over the rivals. Now it looks like Hoke could take this team all the way.

But in a lot of ways, the game against Northwestern was a wake-up call. Michigan stumbled terribly through the first half, where Denard Robinson threw three interceptions. One can always be expected in any given game and is forgivable, two is rough-going and usually means a bad decision was made, but three—that's means the quarterback is having a bad game. 

As Pat Fitzgerad's Wildcats finished the half up 24-14, Michigan fans thought they were watching a repeat of 2010. Last year Michigan started 5-0 but couldn't finish the second half of the season, ending at 7-5 and a blowout bowl loss. Last Saturday, what Michigan fans were seeing wasn't necessarily a repeat of Rich Rodriguez's final year, it was more a repeat of the night game against Notre Dame.

Michigan's offense in the first half was bad then too. It couldn't get anything going. The defense was stout but couldn't fully stop an explosive attack. Then something changed in that second half, and against the Fighting Irish, it ultimately came in the fourth quarter. 

Against the Wildcats, Michigan looked like a completely different team after halftime. The most surprising and satisfying statement: Michigan's defense shut out Northwestern in the final two quarters. The Wildcats didn't score a single point. Michigan capitalized on penalties and turnovers, which went both ways.

There was one call that Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald was absolutely livid about. In Michigan's second half rally, Jordan Kovacs came from the secondary to put pressure on Wildcat quarterback Dan Persa. Persa's helmet came off and Fitzgerald claimed that Kovacs had ripped it off, but there was no flag on the field. After seeing the video replay, I had to agree with Fitzgerald, although if the officials can't see it on the field, they won't throw a flag. Northwestern, and Fitzgerald especially, will be bitter about that one for a long time. However, it wasn't by any means the deciding factor in the game. Besides, the game's officials had helped out the Wildcats throughout the entire first half. Most notably, they got away with a blatant roughing the passer, where Denard Robinson took an unnecessary shot, and it wasn't called. So, I guess it all evened out.

The final score was Michigan 42, Northwestern 24. The Wildcats are now 2-3.

Despite typically being considered the Big Ten's doormat, Northwestern has improved greatly under Pat Fitzgerald. His record is 36-32. At the age of 36, he was the youngest head coach in college football before Lane Kiffin. Fitzgerald had a great 9-4 season in 2008 and has built the program into a viable contender. His quarterback, Dan Persa, is considered by some to be the best passer in the Big Ten and a possible Heisman candidate, but Persa's main deterrent in both has been his susceptibility to injury. Fitzgerald has done a good job to bring the spread offense to the Big Ten, and some Michigan fans even wanted him to be a candidate for the Michigan job. That wasn't ever going to happen, though. Northwestern is Fitzgerald's alma mater, and he's going to stay there forever or as long as he can.

What Michigan learned from its game against Northwestern is that they can go up against a tough team, and this season is going to be tough. With the way this season has started out, it's almost like climbing a ladder. The Notre Dame game was obviously challenging, and it was a good indicator of how things would look in the Big Ten. 

Brady Hoke has had tests that gradually got harder. His first Big Ten game was against a struggling Minnesota, but that can be likened to a season opener. That's probably why Northwestern reminds me so much of the Notre Dame game—although, of course, it wasn't nearly as close. Michigan State, despite their offensive line troubles, will make the game fierce and difficult, but the good news is that this is not last year's Michigan. This is a Michigan that is competitive.

That's what we learned. The first half in Evanston showed us that Michigan, ultimately, is not a top ten team. Not yet, anyway. They are, however, competitive in the Big Ten, and that makes all the difference. A competitive Michigan is able to rally from behind instead of being blown out. It's able to react and make adjustments. Most importantly, it's able to find a way to win.

Last year's wake-up call was in game six against Michigan State. The Spartans showed Michigan fans exactly how bad the Wolverines' defense was. This year's wake-up call is different. Michigan is not perfect, but it's improved. You are not watching 2010 because the Wolverines can finally make a stop. You are not watching 2010 because Michigan finally has an established running game (or at least several different runners) other than Denard Robinson. You are not watching 2010 because we are holding teams scoreless while we put up points and make necessary third-down conversions. This is a team that is focused on controlling the ball, time of possession, and that ultimately is why the teams we have faced have not been able to get back into the game. What is perhaps most refreshing is that, for the first time in a long time, this team is duly confident. It is at the same time cautious of its dangerous opponents. That's how a good football team acts.

Understandably, Michigan fans are finding reasons for optimism, but let's not go crazy. The Wolverines went from being a team that was bad defensively and mediocre offensively to a team that is good in both. But they aren't great. They aren't mentioned among the BCS title contenders such as LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, nor should they be. It's hard to keep things in perspective when you're having so much success. 

Michigan's game against Northwestern was hardly a flawless victory, and this is hardly a flawless team. But where there is legitimate reason for optimism is in this team's apparent ability to do everything they can to overcome their flaws, and that's to be commended.

They still have a lot of work to do. There are going to be a lot of tough battles ahead, but I have a feeling that's exactly how Brady Hoke wants it. The best things in life are rarely easy to attain.

Wolverines Retain Brown Jug, Jump to No. 12 in Rankings

Two old-school coaches with Midwestern ties met on the field in the Big House last Saturday. Both inherited programs that needed to be rebuilt. Both are first year coaches hired to instill a sense of toughness and physical play that is demanded in the Big Ten. However, only one walked away with answers to the questions about whether his team was steadily improving. The other walked away with more questions.

Brady Hoke and Jerry Kill are cut from the same cloth. They are amazingly similar. Both are honest, hard-nosed guys who speak from the heart and tell it like it is. Both put a strong emphasis on physical and mental toughness, and both have turned around moribund programs before. It's not only fitting that these two coaches found their way to the Big Ten, it's practically destiny. Hoke and Michigan should feel privileged that they'll be going up against someone like Jerry Kill in the coming years.

Yet, while Hoke is living his dream at Michigan, Kill seems caught in a nightmare. Granted, it's only his first year, but there are so many indicators that, as similar as Hoke and Kill are as coaches, they inherited two vastly different teams. Even though Michigan does have the benefit of Greg Mattison, it's not really a question of coaching personnel: Kill's staff is just as loyal as Hoke's.

Some believe that the difference is in the players. Michigan's have bought in and are eager to learn. Ultimately, after three years of pitiful conference play, they are eager to win. Minnesota's players, by contrast, perhaps want to win too but are caught in a tight battle with their own doubts. The schedule for Minnesota has also been unforgiving. The Gophers started out competitive against a then-ranked No. 25 USC, but after suffering a loss, they came home to easier teams but surrendered the momentum. They managed a fluke win over Miami of Ohio. The Gophers are now staring down the barrel of the Big Ten schedule, going up against Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa as their toughest opponents. It won't be pretty.

It wasn't pretty for the Gophers either on Saturday. To the delight of many Michigan fans (myself included), the Wolverines throttled Minnesota on both sides of the ball and delivered a punishing performance in a game that felt great because it was one Michigan was expected to win. The Michigan faithful haven't had the chance to experience such a satisfying win in a long time. Even in 2010, when we beat teams we were predicted to beat early in the season, we didn't destroy them. Against Minnesota, the final score was 58-0, Michigan's first shutout victory since 2007.

Now before we go crazy and start chanting "Michigan is back" and dream of playing in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, let's remind ourselves that Michigan won because, yes, the Wolverines were very good, but they hardly faced a challenge. Minnesota has gotten worse since it played USC in week one. They had little fundamentals, and many of Michigan's scores came because one of the Gophers missed a tackle. Minnesota would have broken the shutout with a kick return for a touchdown if it didn't come back because one of the Gophers got a holding penalty. (Of course, you could also argue that the Gophers wouldn't have even been in that position to run it back for a touchdown if the guy hadn't been holding, but at this point it's moot.)

The good news for Michigan: they did their job. On defense, Michigan's front seven dominated a weak Minnesota offensive line as they should have. Will Campbell, who a couple years ago came in as one of Michigan's highest ranked recruits at defensive tackle, and who seemed to struggle during the Rodriguez years, has finally seemed to be put into a position where he can excel, and unless his dominant play against Minnesota was a flash in the pan, he's steadily meeting his potential. In one of the most beautiful defensive plays, Campbell pancaked the Gopher offensive linesman and creamed Minnesota freshman quarterback Max Shortell. Now if he can only do that for the rest of the season. Besides individual plays, the defense as a unit never let up, and it continued to force surprise turnovers. Cornerback Courtney Avery picked up a forced fumble and ran it back for a defensive touchdown.

On offense, Denard Robinson settled down early and made 11 straight completions, which helped build his confidence. The running backs (Toussiant, Smith, Shaw, and Rawls) each racked up good yardage and shed tackles. And of course, receivers played well, especially sophomore Jeremy Gallon, who appears to be Denard's new favorite target. Tight end Kevin Koger and receiver Drew Dileo each got touchdowns. And perhaps most impressively, Michigan placekicker Brendan Gibbons made 3-of-3 field goals. 

You can check out all the Maize and Blue highlights here.

Again, the win came partly because of what Michigan did right, but also because of all the things Minnesota did wrong. Their offense was impotent and their defense had little (if any) intensity. Things in Minneapolis are getting worse for the Gopher faithful as they become despondent towards the remaining part of the season, and some are even questioning whether or not Jerry Kill can effectively turn that program around. My personal belief is that Kill can and he will. He just needs time. I like Jerry Kill because of his history, his demeanor, and the fact that he can finally make Minnesota competitive again, which is good for the conference.

Meanwhile, for Michigan, things continue to improve. The Wolverines face a good road test in Evanston, where they will face a Northwestern team whose threat level I would classify as medium. Then the better test will come the following week in East Lansing, as Michigan looks to snap the three-game losing streak to Michigan State. Despite the Spartans' pathetic play against a shorthanded Ohio State, even though it ended in a 10-7 victory, they will be aptly prepared for their much-anticipated contest against Michigan. Thankfully, the Wolverines should be prepared too. That game will be a good indicator of how well the team has come along. So far, everything has gone right for Hoke. Let's hope that continues.

If I have one gripe about anything Hoke has done, and I'll probably address this is in more detail later, it's that Michigan's helmet will feature numbers on the sides for the remainder of the season. As someone who feels that Michigan's helmets are perfect the way they are and do not need anything to muddy them up (numbers, stickers, etc.), I obviously think adding numbers is an incredibly bad idea. That's largely because I'm a purist when it comes to Michigan's uniform. Brady Hoke has said that the rationale behind the helmet numbers is to honor those players who came before and because the seniors asked him to do it. "I'm pretty sure it was a senior thing," backup quarterback Devin Gardner said at a press conference. "We have a great group of seniors. I'm pretty sure they lobbied to get it done, and what the seniors want, the seniors get."

My fear is that the helmet addition of numbers will likely become permanent. As for the seniors, I commend their effort and I respect them. But like so many alumni, you don't really appreciate the tradition until after you leave. Players go to Oregon because of the prospect that they'll wear a different uniform for every game and somehow that's cool. That's fine for Oregon, but that's not Michigan. If Hoke gave into the seniors' demands this time, and if the rationale was to honor previous players, then there's nothing to suggest that helmet-numbers will not be a permanent addition. You don't mess with the helmet. Hoke has, and I'm pissed about it.

Of course, as I watched the game, I was the only one who apparently noticed and got upset about it. The other people around me were basically of the opinion that it's more important to care about winning games than what's on the helmet. Because Michigan hasn't won a lot of games yet, that sounds like a Rodriguez-era mentality. We should be winning games, not changing helmets.

Finally, back to the topic of games and schedule, Michigan jumped to No. 12 in the rankings. This is the highest Michigan has been since 2007, so that's good, but appropriately, Michigan fans feel a mixture of excitement and trepidation. There's a sentiment that 2009 or 2010 might repeat itself. The last time Michigan soared in the rankings, it got throttled by Michigan State. We won't really know how good we are until we play the Spartans, and ultimately when we face the Buckeyes.

As much as I didn't think Michigan had a shot at the Big Ten title this year, it's starting to look more and more that Michigan could become and maybe already is a dark horse contender. They'll still have to knock off Michigan State and Nebraska, the latter of which I remain terrified. But Hoke has put together a solid team that, while they don't play perfect, they play far more fundamentally sound than they have for the past three years. And when you've got fundamentals down, the rest falls into place.

Just don't get ahead of yourself.